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How to Find Strong Industrial Products Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
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Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Alcoa?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Alcoa (AA - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on April 17, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at -$0.19 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the -$0.19 Most Accurate Estimate and the -$0.20 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Alcoa has an Earnings ESP of +5%. Investors should also know that AA is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AA is part of a big group of Industrial Products stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Terex (TEX - Free Report) as well.
Slated to report earnings on May 6, 2024, Terex holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $1.35 a share 49 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Terex is $1.33, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.79%.
AA and TEX's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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How to Find Strong Industrial Products Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Alcoa?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Alcoa (AA - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on April 17, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at -$0.19 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the -$0.19 Most Accurate Estimate and the -$0.20 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Alcoa has an Earnings ESP of +5%. Investors should also know that AA is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AA is part of a big group of Industrial Products stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Terex (TEX - Free Report) as well.
Slated to report earnings on May 6, 2024, Terex holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $1.35 a share 49 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Terex is $1.33, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.79%.
AA and TEX's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>