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Why Is Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) Up 27.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 27.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tandem Diabetes Care due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Tandem Diabetes Reports Wider Q4 Loss, Gross Margin Down

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. reported an adjusted loss of 27 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2023, wider than the adjusted loss of 1 cent per share in the year-ago period. The figure also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 23 cents.

On a GAAP basis, the loss was 46 cents per share in the fourth quarter compared with the year-ago period’s loss of 25 cents.

Revenues

GAAP revenues in the quarter came in at $196.8 million, down 10.8% year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.9%.

In September 2022, the company began offering the Tandem Choice Program to eligible t:slim X2 customers to provide a pathway to the ownership of its newest hardware platform, Tandem Mobi, when available. Based on that, Tandem Diabetes is now reporting adjusted revenues as well.

Non-GAAP revenues were $209.3 million in the reported quarter on 27,000 pump shipments worldwide.

Quarter in Detail

Tandem Diabetes reports under two primary markets based on the geographic location to which its products are shipped.

The United States

Total sales in this region came in at $150.9 million in the fourth quarter on a GAAP basis, down 7.7% year over year. Non-GAAP sales in the United States were $163.5 million. The company shipped 21,000 pumps in the fourth quarter, lower than 24,000 shipments in the year-ago period.

Outside the United States

In the fourth quarter, the company registered GAAP sales of $45.9 million (same on a non-GAAP basis), a 16.1% decline from the year-ago period.

Margin Details

The gross profit in the fourth quarter was $93.3 million, a 19.2% decline year over year. The gross margin contracted 498 basis points (bps) to 47.4%, despite a 1.4% decline in the cost of sales to $103.5 million. SG&A expenses fell 12.2% to $85.8 million in the quarter under review. R&D expenses increased 19.7% to $42.6 million. The company registered an adjusted operating loss of $35.1 million in the fourth quarter compared with the year-ago operating loss of $17.8 million.

Financial Position

Tandem Diabetes exited the fourth quarter of 2023 with cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments of $467.9 million compared with $616.9 million at the end of the 2022 fourth-quarter.  

2024 Guidance

Tandem Diabetes initiated its financial outlook for 2024. For the full year, non-GAAP sales are estimated to be approximately $850 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2024 revenues is pegged at $846 million. Full-year non-GAAP sales inside the United States are expected to be nearly $625 million and sales outside the United States to be nearly $225 million.

For the 2024 first quarter, the company anticipates to generate non-GAAP sales of approximately $175 million. Within this, sales inside the United States is expected to be $122 million and $53 million outside the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the 2024 first-quarter revenues is pegged at $189.1 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -46.09% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Tandem Diabetes Care has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Tandem Diabetes Care has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Tandem Diabetes Care belongs to the Zacks Medical - Instruments industry. Another stock from the same industry, IQVIA Holdings (IQV - Free Report) , has gained 2.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2023.

IQVIA reported revenues of $3.87 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3.5%. EPS of $2.84 for the same period compares with $2.78 a year ago.

For the current quarter, IQVIA is expected to post earnings of $2.47 per share, indicating a change of +0.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.3% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for IQVIA. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.


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