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Beat the Market the Zacks Way: Micron Technology, American Eagle Outfitters, Cencora in Focus

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The three mostly followed indexes ended last week positively, driven by a strong growth outlook and expectation of interest rate cuts in the near future. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.8%, 1.7% and 2%, respectively.

After two days of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Federal Reserve has kept the overnight interest rate unchanged at its current level of 5.25-5.5%. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite the spike in inflation in recent months, the overall trajectory of inflation is consistent and declining gradually toward the 2% target. However, the central bank hinted that it expects three rate cuts in 2024 despite sticky inflation.

The U.S. economy continues to show strength and stability as claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 210,000 against a four-week average that rose to 211,250 for the week ending Mar 16. Also, sales of existing homes saw a surge of  9.5% in February, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.

On the international front, the attack on the Red Sea by rebels is a growing concern as it is disrupting the global supply chain.

Regardless of market conditions, we here at Zacks provide investors with unbiased guidance on how to beat the market. 

As usual, Zacks Research guided investors over the past three months with its time-tested methodologies. Given the prevailing market uncertainty, you may want to look at our feats to prepare better for your next action.

Here are some of our key achievements:

e.l.f. Beauty and American Eagle Outfitters Surge Following Zacks Rank Upgrade

Shares of e.l.f. Beauty (ELF - Free Report) have gained 33.6% (versus the S&P 500’s 7.7% increase) since it was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) on January 23.

Another stock, American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO - Free Report) , which was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on January 22, has returned 25.8% (versus the S&P 500’s 7.9% increase) since then.

Zacks Rank, our short-term rating system, has earnings estimate revisions at its core. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. 

A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks returned +20.63% in 2023 vs. +24.83% for the S&P 500 index and +15% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. The portfolio of Zacks Rank #1 stocks is an equal-weight portfolio, while the S&P 500 index is a market-cap-weighted index that has been notably distorted by the concentrated performance of mega-cap stocks in 2023.

We are not trying to cherry-pick here. But since this Zacks Model portfolio, consisting of Zacks Rank #1 stocks, is an equal-weight portfolio, the equal-weight S&P 500 index is the appropriate benchmark for comparison. Looked at this way, this portfolio has handily outperformed the index.

The Zacks Model Portfolio - consisting of Zacks Rank #1 stocks – has outperformed the S&P index by more than 13 percentage points since 1988 (Through January 1, 2024, the Zacks # 1 Rank stocks generated an annualized return of +24.18% since 1988 vs. +10.88% for the S&P 500 index). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here >>>

Check e.l.f. Beauty’s historical EPS and Sales here>>>

Check American Eagle Outfitters’s historical EPS and Sales here>>>

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Zacks Recommendation Upgrades Synchronoss Technologies and The Progressive Corporation Higher 

Shares of Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (SNCR - Free Report) and The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) have advanced 49.5% (versus the S&P 500’s 7.3% rise) and 15.3%, respectively, since their Zacks Recommendation was upgraded to Outperform on January 25.

While the Zacks Rank is our short-term rating system that is most effective over the one- to three-month holding horizon, the Zacks Recommendation aims to predict performance over the next 6 to 12 months. However, just like the Zacks Rank, the foundation for the Zacks Recommendation is trends in earnings estimate revisions.

The Zacks Recommendation classifies stocks into three groups — Outperform, Neutral and Underperform. While these recommendations are determined quantitatively, our analysts have the flexibility to override them for the 1100+ stocks they closely follow based on their better judgment of factors such as valuation, industry conditions and management effectiveness than the quantitative model.

To access our research reports with Zacks Recommendations for the 1100+ stocks we cover, click here>>>

Zacks Focus List Stocks Micron Technology, The Walt Disney Company Shoot Up

Shares of Micron Technology, Inc. (MU - Free Report) , which belongs to the Zacks Focus List, have gained 29.1% over the past 12 weeks. The stock was added to the Focus List on December 27, 2016. Another Focus-List holding, The Walt Disney Company (DIS - Free Report) , which was added to the portfolio on March 23, 2020, has returned 28.3% over the past 12 weeks. The S&P 500 has advanced 10.5% over this period. 

The 50-stock Zacks Focus List model portfolio returned +21.72% in 2023 (through November 30) vs. +20.79% for the S&P 500 index and +6.32% for the equal-weight S&P 500 index. In 2022, the portfolio produced -15.2% vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.

Since 2004, the Focus List portfolio has produced an annualized return of +11.07% through November 30, 2023. This compares to a +9.49% annualized return for the S&P 500 index in the same time period.

On a rolling one-, three- and five-year annualized basis, the Zacks Focus List returned +13.49%, +9.21%, and +14.05% vs. +13.82%, +9.74% and +12.51% for the S&P 500 index, respectively.

Unlock all of our powerful research, tools and analysis, including the Focus List, Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research Reports, Zacks Earnings ESP Filter, Premium Screener and more, as part of Zacks Premium. Gain full access now >>

Zacks ECAP Stocks Oracle Corporation and Cencora Make Significant Gains

Oracle Corporation (ORCL - Free Report) , a component of our Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), has jumped 21.2% over the past 12 weeks. Cencora, Inc. (COR - Free Report) has followed Oracle Corporation with 18.1% returns.

The Zacks Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP), which consists of 30 concentrated, ultra-defensive, long-term Buy and Hold stocks, returned +12.17% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index. The portfolio returned -4.7% in 2022 vs. the S&P 500 index’s -17.96%.

With little to no turnover and annual rebalance periodicity, the ECAP seeks to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies whose earnings streams exhibit a proven 20+ year track record of surviving recessionary periods with minimal impact on aggregate earnings growth relative to the overall S&P 500.

The ECAP and many other model portfolios are available as part of Zacks Advisor Tools, a cloud-based solution to access Zacks award-winning stock, mutual fund and ETF research. Click here to schedule a demo.

Zacks ECDP Stocks The Home Depot and Colgate-Palmolive Company Outperform Peers

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD - Free Report) , which is part of our Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP), has returned 12.6% over the past 12 weeks. Another ECDP stock, Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL - Free Report) , has climbed 11.9% over the same time frame. Of course, the inclination of investors toward quality dividend stocks to secure an income stream amid heightened market volatility contributed to this performance.

Check The Home Depot’s dividend history here>>>

Check Colgate-Palmolive’s dividend history here>>>

With an extremely low Beta and a history of minimum earnings variability over the last 20+ years, this 25-stock portfolio helps significantly mitigate risk.

The Zacks Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) returned -0.9% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index) and +8.11% for the Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL - Free Report) . The portfolio returned -2.3% in 2022 vs. -17.96% for the S&P 500 index and -8.34% for NOBL.

Click here to access this portfolio on Zacks Advisor Tools.  

Zacks Top 10 Stocks — Axon Enterprise Delivers Solid Returns

Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON - Free Report) , from the Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2024, has jumped 22.5% since the list was released on January 2 compared to a 10% increase for the S&P 500 Index.

The Top 10 portfolio returned +25.15% in 2023 vs. +26.28% for the S&P 500 index. Since 2012, the Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +1060.9% through the end of 2023 vs. +360.1% for the S&P 500 index.

On a rolling one-, three- and five-year annualized basis, the Zacks Top 10 portfolio returned +25.15%, +14.13%, and +29.3% vs. +26.28%, +10.23% and +15.61% for the S&P 500 index, respectively.

Since 2012, the Zacks Top 10 portfolio has returned an annualized return of +22.67% through the end of 2023 vs. +13.56% for the S&P 500 index.

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