Back to top

Image: Bigstock

These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Read MoreHide Full Article

Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Wingstop?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Wingstop (WING - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) 12 days from its next quarterly earnings release on May 1, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.78 a share.

WING has an Earnings ESP figure of +6.2%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.78 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.73. Wingstop is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

WING is part of a big group of Retail and Wholesale stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) as well.

Slated to report earnings on April 30, 2024, Amazon holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.91 a share 11 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amazon is $0.82, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +11.66%.

WING and AMZN's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - free report >>

Wingstop Inc. (WING) - free report >>

Published in