Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Want Better Returns? Don?t Ignore These 2 Oils and Energy Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

Read MoreHide Full Article

Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Energy Transfer LP?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Energy Transfer LP (ET - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.35 a share, just 19 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 8, 2024.

ET has an Earnings ESP figure of +14.75%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.35 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.31. Energy Transfer LP is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

ET is part of a big group of Oils and Energy stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Kinder Morgan (KMI - Free Report) as well.

Kinder Morgan is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on July 17, 2024. KMI's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.26 a share 89 days from its next earnings release.

For Kinder Morgan, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.26 is +0.97%.

ET and KMI's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) - free report >>

Energy Transfer LP (ET) - free report >>

Published in