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What's in the Cards for First Solar (FSLR) in Q1 Earnings?

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First Solar, Inc. (FSLR - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2024 results on May 1, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.88%. First Solar has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 14.16%. 

Factors to Note

Thanks to the higher sales volume of its modules, particularly higher net sales of Series 7 modules, backed by ramped-up production rate at FSLR’s new facility in Ohio, are also likely to have boosted the company’s overall top line in the first quarter. Increasing average selling price (ASP) per watt sold must have also benefited the company’s revenues.

First Solar, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

First Solar, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

First Solar, Inc. price-eps-surprise | First Solar, Inc. Quote

However, lower revenues from FSLR’s residual business operations, primarily related to the sale of FSLR’s Luz del Norte project in 2022, might have had some adverse impact on its overall top-line performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSLR’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $746.5 million, indicating growth of 36.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

The strong top-line performance, along with lower sales freight charges and continued module cost reductions, is likely to have bolstered First Solar’s bottom-line performance. In December 2023, the company entered into an agreement with Pfizer, which resulted in sales of approximately $687 million of the 2023 Section 45X tax credits. This is also expected to have aided the company’s quarterly earnings.

However, increased ramp-up production costs associated with the increased production rate at its manufacturing facilities might have had some adverse impact on FSLR’s overall first-quarter earnings.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Solar’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.03 per share, implying a massive 407.5% improvement from the prior-year reported figure of 40 cents.

The company’s agreement with Pfizer is expected to earn aggregate cash proceeds of $659 million, of which it received an initial $336 million in January 2024. The company expects to receive the remaining cash proceeds by the end of April 2024. This must have boosted its cash flow from operating activities, which should get reflected once the company releases its quarterly results on May 1.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for FSLR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -5.04%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: First Solar currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three companies from the solar industry that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +29.52% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CSIQ’s first-quarter sales is pegged at $1.28 billion.

The consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at a loss of 26 cents per share. The stock has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 56.24%.

Nextracker (NXT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +23.75% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NXT’s first-quarter sales is pegged at $681.8 million, implying an improvement of 31.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for the company’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at 60 cents per share, implying an improvement of 185.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. NXT has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 56.26%.

Sunrun (RUN - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +19.46% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sunrun’s first-quarter sales is pegged at $478.8 million.

The consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at a loss of 50 cents per share, implying a solid improvement from the year-ago quarter’s reported loss of $1.12.

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