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Why Is Ryder (R) Down 0.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ryder (R - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ryder due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Earnings Beat at Ryder in Q4

Ryder's first-quarter 2024 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.14 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.62. However, the bottom line plunged 23.8% year over year, reflecting weaker market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental, partially offset by higher Supply Chain Solutions and ChoiceLease results.

Total revenues of $3,098 million outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,013.1 million and improved 5% year over year. Operating revenues of $2,495 million grew 6% year over year, reflecting recent acquisitions and contractual revenue growth, partially offset by lower commercial rental revenue in Fleet Management Solutions.

Segmental Results

Fleet Management Solutions: Total revenues of $1,455 million dipped 3% year over year owing to lower fuel costs passed through to customers and lower operating revenues.

Operating revenues summed $1,251 million, down 1% year over year owing to lower commercial rental revenues, largely offset by higher ChoiceLease revenues.

Supply-Chain Solutions: Total revenues of $1,302 million inched up 8% year over year, backed by higher operating revenues and higher subcontracted transportation costs passed through to customers.

Operating revenues rose 11% year over year to $972 million, mainly due to benefits fromrecent acquisitions.

Dedicated Transportation Solutions: Total revenues of $563 million and operating revenues of $427 million increased 24% and 33%, year over year, respectively, owing to the Cardinal Logistics acquisition.

Liquidity & Buyback

Ryder exited the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $234 million compared with $204 million at the end of the prior quarter. R’s total debt (including the current portion) was $7,543 million at the first-quarter end compared with $7,114 million at the end of the prior quarter.

R generated $526 million of net cash from operating activities in the reported quarter.Free cash flow came in at $13 million. Capital expenditures were $686 million.

During first-quarter 2024, Ryder paid dividends of $35 million and repurchased shares worth $51 million.

Outlook

For second-quarter 2024, Ryder expects adjusted EPS in the range of $2.75-$2.95.

For 2024, Ryder has updated its guidance. Adjusted EPS for the year is now estimated to be between $11.75 and $12.50 (prior view: $11.50 - $12.50).

Adjusted ROE (return on equity) is now suggested in the 15.5%-16.5% band (prior view: 15% - 16.5% band).

Management now anticipates total revenues to increase by almost 10% (prior view: up 13%). Operating revenues (adjusted) are now forecasted to increase 10% (prior view: up 13%).

Net cash from operating activities is still projected to be $2.4 billion. Capital expenditure is estimated to be $3.2 billion (prior view: $3.3 billion).

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Ryder has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Ryder has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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