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Pre-Markets Up on Projected Lower Volume

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Friday, May 24th, 2024

Pre-market futures are creeping back up this morning. This comes after a pretty heavy selloff session yesterday following a series of new closing highs across major indices. And while we tend to think of this week as being a success largely due to routinely great quarterly numbers from NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) , in actuality we did better prior to NVIDIA’s report. It’s more as if the expectations for a strong Q1 report was more important, almost, than the actual figures.

We’re skewed by long holiday weekend, where we observe the sacrifice American soldiers have made in service to our country. But we’re likely to see lower trading volume starting today, and perhaps not picking up until after Labor Day. Of course, major revelations and/or natural occurrences will always bring traders back, if only to game the emotion of the market for a period of time. Outside of that, however, we may be setting the market to simmer.

Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for April are out this morning. The headline swung to a big beat, +0.7%, from what was projected as a loss between -0.5-1.0% for the same period. It’s down a tick from the downwardly revised +0.9% the previous month. Ex-Transportation came in at +0.4%, also ahead of expectations. Non-defense, ex-aircraft — a proxy for “regular” business spending — came in at +0.3%, 20 basis points (bps) higher than estimates. Shipments were +0.4% compared to +0.1% anticipated. All these are signs of an economy barrel-chesting its way through a high-inflation environment.

After the open, we’ll see final Consumer Sentiment numbers for May, expected to tick up to 67.6 from 67.4 the previous month. It may also give us a chance to synthesize recent data on consumer appetites, as we now have plenty of evidence that spending is down pretty much everywhere. This is music to the Fed’s ear — or at least the early humming of a nice tune — and will go a long way toward seeing prices start adjusting lower. We’ve already seen this happening at companies like Walmart (WMT - Free Report) and Target (TGT - Free Report) .

Ross Stores (ROST - Free Report) is up +7% this morning. Its Q1 earnings report yesterday demonstrated solid beats on both top and bottom lines. Deckers Outdoor (DECK - Free Report) posted a huge earnings beat of +75% in its fiscal Q4 report on Thursday. Revenues beat the Zacks consensus by an impressive +9%. Shares of the parent company for UGG and Hoka are trading up +13% in today’s early market.

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