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BioMarin (BMRN) Down 7.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 7.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BioMarin due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Q1 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss Estimates

BioMarin reported first-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 71 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents. The reported earnings rose 18.3% year over year, as rising R&D expenses partially offset higher sales.

Total revenues were $648.8 million in the reported quarter, up 9% year over year on a reported basis and 13% on a constant currency basis. Strong sales of Voxzogo drove revenues. The top line, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $649.8 million.

Quarter in Detail

Product revenues (including Aldurazyme) totaled $637.8 million, up 8.8% year over year. Product revenues from BioMarin's marketed brands (excluding Aldurazyme) increased 9.1% year over year to $602.5 million on higher revenues from Voxzogo and Palynziq. This was offset by lower sales from Naglazyme and Kuvan. Royalty and other revenues totaled $11 million, up 10.3% year over year.

Voxzogo generated sales of $152.9 million, up 74% year over year and 4.9% quarter over quarter, driven by strong demand. Higher sales of Voxzogo were fueled by the U.S. label expansion to younger age groups (under five years).

Voxzogo sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $150.6 million and $149.6 million, respectively.

Vimizim sales rose 2% year over year to $192.6 million. The drug’s sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $183.5 million and $186.3 million, respectively.

Palynziq injection sales grossed $75.7 million in the quarter, up 21% year over year, driven by higher sales volume in the United States. The drug’s sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $77.2 million but beat our model estimates of $71 million.

Naglazyme sales fell 14% year over year to $105.6 million due to unfavorable timing of large government orders from some countries of the Middle East, while Brineura generated sales of $39 million, which remained flat year over year.

Roctavian generated $0.8 million in sales during the first quarter compared with $2.7 million in the previous quarter. Sales declined sequentially owing to reimbursement and market access challenges.

In the PKU franchise, Kuvan revenues declined 29% to $35.9 million due to generic competition.

Product revenues from Aldurazyme totaled $35.3 million, up 3% from that recorded in the prior year quarter. Sales increased due to the favorable timing of order fulfillment to Sanofi.

2024 Guidance

BioMarin maintained the total revenue guidance for 2024 it provided earlier this year. The company continues to expect total revenues in the range of $2.7-$2.8 billion.

However, the adjusted operating margin is now expected to be between 24% and 25% compared with the earlier projection of 23% and 24%.

BioMarin also expects adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $2.75-$2.95, compared with the earlier expectation of $2.60-$2.80. Adjusted earnings per share guidance were raised due to the expected reduction in research and development (R&D) costs resulting from the discontinuation of the four pipeline programs, namely BMN 331, BMN 255, BMN 355 and BMN 365.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -10.07% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, BioMarin has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, BioMarin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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