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CACI International (CACI) Up 5.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CACI International (CACI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CACI International due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

CACI International Q4 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

CACI International reported better-than-expected third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The national security-related IT solutions and services provider reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.74, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.52. Moreover, the bottom line improved 16.7% on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to a rise in operating income and share repurchases, partially offset by higher tax provisions and increased interest expenses.

In the third quarter of fiscal 2024, CACI International reported revenues of $1.94 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.86 billion. The top line increased 11% from the prior-year quarter, primarily driven by organic growth.

Quarterly Details

In the fiscal third quarter, contract awards totaled $3.5 billion, with approximately 46% for the new business. Revenues from contract awards excluded the ceiling value of multi-award, indefinite-delivery indefinite-quantity contracts.

The company ended the quarter with a backlog of $28.6 billion, up 13% on a year-over-year basis. As of Mar 31, 2024, the funded backlog decreased 5.9% to $3.2 billion. Our estimates for the total backlog and the funded backlog were pegged at $26.7 billion and $4.08 billion, respectively.

In terms of the customer mix, the Department of Defense contributed 74.9% to total revenues in the reported quarter. Federal Civilian Agencies made up 19.7%, while Commercial and other customers accounted for 5.4% of revenues. Our estimates for the Department of Defense, Federal Civilian Agencies, and Commercial and Other customers’ contributions toward total revenues were pegged at 74%, 21.1% and 4.9%, respectively.

The Prime Contractor and Subcontractor accounted for 89.9% and 10.1% of total revenues, respectively. Our model estimates for the Prime Contractor and Subcontractor’s contributions toward total revenues were pinned at 89% and 11%, respectively.

In terms of contract type, cost-plus-fee-type, fixed-price, and time and material-type contracts contributed 60.7%, 27.4% and 11.9%, respectively, to total revenues. Our model estimates for cost-plus-fee-type, fixed-price, and time and material-type contracts’ contributions toward total revenues were pegged at 60%, 28.7% and 11.3%, respectively.

Expertise and Technology accounted for 47.3% and 52.7% of total revenues, respectively. Our estimates for Expertise and Technology’s contributions toward total revenues were pegged at 46.9% and 53.1%, respectively.

The operating income for the quarter amounted to $181.3 million, up 16.9% year over year. However, the operating margin contracted 47 basis points (bps) to 9.35%.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.6% year over year to $218 million. However, the adjusted EBITDA margin increased 200 bps to 11.3%.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

As of Mar 31, 2024, CACI had cash and cash equivalents of $159.2 million compared with the previous quarter’s $128.8 million. The total long-term (net of the current portion) debt was $1.63 billion, which declined from $1.71 billion as of Dec 31, 2023.

The company generated operating cash flow (excluding mini-automatic radar plotting aid or MARPA) of $113.6 million in the fiscal third quarter, up 100.3% from the year-ago quarter. Free cash flow was $102 million during the quarter under review.

Updated Fiscal 2024 Guidance

CACI International has updated its guidance for fiscal 2024. The company now projects revenues between $7.5 billion and $7.6 billion, up from the earlier guidance range of $7.3-$7.5 billion. It now forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $20.13 and $20.58 compared with the previous expectations of $19.91-$20.58.

The guidance for the free cash flow remained unchanged at $420 million for fiscal 2024. CACI expects fiscal 2024 adjusted net income in the range of $455-$465 million, up from the previous forecast of $450-$465 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, CACI International has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, CACI International has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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