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What's in Store for DeVry Education (DV) in Q4 Earnings?

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DeVry Education Group Inc. (DV - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Aug 18, after market close.

Last quarter, this secondary and post-secondary education company posted a positive surprise of 16.39%. Moreover, the company has surpassed estimates in three out of the past four quarters, resulting in an average positive surprise of 3.87%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.  

DEVRY EDUCATION Price and EPS Surprise

DEVRY EDUCATION Price and EPS Surprise | DEVRY EDUCATION Quote

Factors to Consider

DeVry expects revenues to decrease in a range of 2%–3% year over year in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016. Revenues are expected to be hurt by the transformation of DeVry University and soft revenues at Carrington College, which will offset top-line growth at other DeVry institutions. DeVry’s Medical and Healthcare - particularly Chamberlain College of Nursing - and International and Professional Education segments are performing well owing to growing demand and campus expansions, a trend which is expected to continue in the soon-to-be reported quarter. Adjusted operating costs are expected to decline in a range of 3%–4% in the to-be-reported quarter.

The company is undertaking several student-focused initiatives at DeVry University to return to growth and transform this business. However, these efforts haven’t paid off yet. The company expects DeVry University to report further decline in enrollment levels in the near term as the company continues to reposition DeVry University. Further with improving employment scenario, more adult students are opting for jobs and the demand for academic programs is declining.

Earnings Whisper?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that DeVry is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP:  DeVry’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 61 cents.

Zacks Rank: DeVry has a Zacks Rank #3. Though the company’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies in the consumer discretionary sector that can be considered as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Pool Corp. (POOL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and a Zacks Rank #2

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.45% and a Zacks Rank #3

Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.29% and a Zacks Rank #3

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