It has been about a month since the last earnings report for ViaSat (VSAT Quick QuoteVSAT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 16.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ViaSat due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Viasat Q4 Loss Wider Than Expected, Top Line Up Y/Y

Viasat reported mixed fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with the top line surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate but the bottom line missing the same. The company reported higher revenues year over year, backed by healthy demand trends in all segments. Growth in commercial air IFC services, strong demand for high-speed network encryption products and tactical satcom networks supported the top line during the quarter. However, the decline in fixed broadband business partially reversed this trend.

Net Income

The company incurred a net loss of $100.3 million or a loss of 80 cents per share against a net income of $1.20 billion or $15.56 per share in the prior-year quarter. Higher net income from discontinued operations boosted the bottom line in the year ago quarter. The bottom line was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 60 cents.

Excluding non-recurring items, Viasat reported a non-GAAP net loss of $30.5 million or a loss of 24 cents per share against a net income of $13.3 million or 17 cents per share in the prior-year period.

For fiscal 2024, the company reported a net loss of $1.06 billion or a loss of $9.12 per share against a net income of $1.08 billion or $14.29 per share in fiscal 2023. Non-GAAP net income was $148.5 million or $1.25 per share against a loss of $0.6 million or a loss of a penny in 2023.

Revenues

Revenues surged 73% to $1.15 billion, driven by solid growth in product and service revenues. The top line surpassed the consensus estimate by $37 million.

In fiscal 2024, the company reported revenues of $4.28 billion, up 68% year over year.

Product revenues were $337.9 million, up from $271.4 million in the year-ago quarter. Net sales from Service improved to $812 million from $394.7 million in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues from Satellite Services improved to $577 million from $296 million in the year-ago quarter. The improvement is driven by strong growth in commercial and business aviation IFC services. A decline in the U.S. fixed broadband portfolio partially affected the net sales. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to $282 million from $85 million, backed by a healthy contribution from Inmarsat.

Revenues from Commercial Networks were $188 million, up from $153 million in the year-ago quarter.  Higher commercial air IFC terminal deliveries drove the top line. However, lower demand for maritime and enterprise products impeded revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA came in at a loss of $41 million compared with a loss of $18 million a year ago.

The Government Systems segment registered revenues of $386 million from continuing operations, up 77% year over year, driven by solid Inmarsat contribution. Solid traction for high-speed network encryption products and tactical satcom networks are tailwinds. Soft demand for government mobile broadband products affected revenues in this segment. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was $117 million, up from $58 million, backed by the contribution from Inmarsat.

Other Details

In the March quarter, the company reported an operating loss of $0.3 million compared with an operating loss of $72.7 million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $358 million, up from $124 million in the year-ago quarter.

Cash Flow & Liquidity

During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, Viasat generated an operating cash flow of $232 million compared with $50 million in the prior-year period. As of Mar 31, 2024, the company has $1.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with a net debt of $5.6 billion compared to respective figures of $1.34 billion and $1.1 billion in the prior-year quarter.

Outlook

For fiscal 2025, management expects total revenues to remain roughly flat year over year. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations is projected to increase by low to mid-single digits. Viasat anticipates high single-digit year-over-year growth in Government systems in fiscal 2025. Commercial Networks are forecasted to grow by mid single digits year over year, while revenues from Satellite Services are expected to decline by low to mid-single digits at the same time period.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 46.59% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, ViaSat has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, ViaSat has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.