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How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Business Services Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider MasterCard?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. MasterCard (MA - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.53 a share, just eight days from its upcoming earnings release on July 31, 2024.

By taking the percentage difference between the $3.53 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.51 Zacks Consensus Estimate, MasterCard has an Earnings ESP of +0.36%. Investors should also know that MA is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

MA is just one of a large group of Business Services stocks with a positive ESP figure. Block (SQ - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Block is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on August 1, 2024. SQ's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.83 a share nine days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Block is $0.76, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +9.93%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, MA and SQ could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) - free report >>

Block, Inc. (SQ) - free report >>

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