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This Gold Miner Has More Room to Run on Likely Q2 Earnings Beat

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Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD - Free Report) , one of the largest gold mining companies in the world, is set to report second quarter 2024 earnings results on Aug 12, before the opening bell. The stock has an Earnings ESP of +3.29% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 and a positive Earnings ESP, the chance of an earnings beat is as high as 70%. These stocks are anticipated to appreciate after their earnings release. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Factors That Should Drive Second-Quarter Results

Barrick Gold continues to focus on high-return investments, particularly in Nevada, bolstered by successful exploration programs and ongoing project executions. The merger with Randgold fortified GOLD’s position in the industry, owning five of the industry’s top 10 tier1 gold assets, including the Cortez and Goldstrike in Nevada.

Gold prices jumped in 2024 buoyed by increased geopolitical tensions, a depreciating U.S. dollar, the potential for monetary policy easing, and continuous purchasing by central banks. The World Gold Council said that the gold mining industry is suffering from a scarcity of deposits of the yellow metal. 

As gold miners have already explored prospective areas, new mines are very hard to be identified. Gold mining is a very lengthy process by its nature. Moreover, slow-moving government clearances create more hurdles for miners.

On the demand side, the use of gold in energy, healthcare and technology is rising. India and China account for around 50% of consumers’ gold demand. Economic strength in India is fueling wealth-driven buying. Gold demand continues to be on the rise from central banks. Therefore, an eventual demand-supply imbalance is likely to drive gold prices.

GOLD belongs to the Zacks Defined Mining - Gold Industry, which is currently in the top 22% of the Zacks Industry Rank. Since it is ranked in the top half of Zacks Ranked Industries, we expect the Computer Storage Devices industry to outperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months.

Two major companies in this industry, Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV - Free Report) and Aris Mining Corp. (ARMN - Free Report) will report on Aug 13, after the closing bell. FNV currently sports a Zacks Rank #1, while Aris Mining currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Attractive Valuation 

Barrick Gold is currently trading at an attractive valuation compared to its peers. The stock has a forward price/earnings (P/E) of 15.05X, in line with the industry’s P/E and the S&P 500’s P/E of 18.91X. It has a price/sale (P/S) of 2.65X, compared with the industry’s P/S of 3X and the S&P 500’s P/S of 2.75X. Moreover, GOLD has a price/book (P/B) of 0.95X, lower than the industry’s P/B of 1.57X and the S&P 500’s P/B of 3.47X. 

GOLD has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 6.5% and 36.8%, respectively, for the second-quarter 2024. The Zacks Earnings Estimate revisions remain static in the last 30 days. The company reported positive earnings surprises in the last four reported quarters with the average beat of being 18.3%.   

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Strong Upside Left

The stock price of Barrick Gold has surged 12.6% in the past six months, surpassing the broad-market index S&P 500’s gain of a mere 5%. GOLD recorded its 52-week high price at $19.45 on Jul 17. After that, the stock price tumbled 13.6%. The average price target of brokerage firms represents an increase of 27.4% from the last closing price of $16.81. The brokerage target price is currently in the range of $18-$27.86.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research


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