I think globally to start each week. Do you? Follow me on Twitter @johnblank100
This Global Week Ahead begins with a much-anticipated clash of U.S. titans.
On Monday night, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump go toe-to-toe in a first U.S. presidential debate. With a tightening contest, the three debates figure prominently. A series of successful debate blows offer a choice opportunity to build a decisive lead -- in seemingly endless U.S. presidential polls -- before the final election calls.
NBC’s Lester Holt is the first debate moderator. Expect Clinton to showcase the value of her multiple years in government. She will be prepared. Trump will sling it and wing it.
Their first boxing match will make noisy headlines all week long. Don’t expect risk markets to move decisively until dust settles on the U.S. presidential arena.
The rest of this Global Week Ahead is a fully global central bank cleanup play.
A curious fact speaks. S&P 500 EPS -- in these top-down/event-driven times -- can go negative (for 6 quarters in a row!) -- and stock indexes still go up. It’s not magic. It’s massive central bank liquidity coming from on high.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda will speak to executives in Osaka about the new Japan zero rate on 10-year bonds on Monday, and then to a security dealers association on Wednesday. BoJ minutes get released on Tuesday.
Also on Monday, the ECB’s liquidity provider Mario Draghi delivers his quarterly testimony to the European Parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee.
The final liquidity provider, Fed Chair Yellen, speaks to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. The focus will be on the supervision of big banks. But she could be asked about last week’s rate decision and her lower “dot plot” forecast.
China manufacturing PMIs roll in Friday. Fresh PMIs are unlikely to deliver any fireworks. An expansion surprise to 52 from near 50 is what to watch for.
A PARTING NOTE:
Michel Barnier --the European Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator-- begins work next Saturday. Don’t forget about that looming debacle, arriving gratis angry U.K. populists. However, this clash is likely a 2017 narrative than a 2016 one.
Fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) stocks to look at—
(1) Tate & Lyle ADR (TATYY - Snapshot Report) . This is a food-miscellaneous/diversified industry stock with a $4.4 billion market cap. The Zacks VGM score is B.
Tate & Lyle PLC is a British-based multi-national agribusiness. It was originally a sugar refining business, but from the 1970s began to diversify, eventually divesting its sugar business in 2012. It specializes in using innovative technology to turn raw materials like corn, tapioca and oats into ingredients that add taste, texture, nutrients and increased functionality to food and beverage, as well as industrial chemicals and animal foods. It operates from 25 manufacturing facilities and a network of research centers worldwide.
(2) AAR Corp (AIR - Analyst Report) . This is an aerospace/defense industry equipment maker with a $1.1 billion market cap. The Zacks VGM score is B.
AAR Corp. is a worldwide leader in supplying aftermarket products and services for aircraft, engines, and engine parts.
(3) CRH PLC (CRH - Snapshot Report) . This is a construction materials company with a $28 billion market cap. The Zacks VGM score is C.
CRH PLC manufactures cement, concrete products, aggregates, roofing, insulation and other building materials. Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates in Ireland, the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands.
Key global/macro data—
There are a lot of meetings in Brussels among top European leaders on Wednesday.
Big news this week may arrive via China manufacturing PMIs out on Friday and the weekend. Look for a higher high.
On Monday, the German IFO business climate index hit 109.5, well up from a prior 106.2, the IFO current conditions index hit 114.7, up from 112.8 and the IFO expectations index hit 104.5, up from 100.1. That is very strong indeed.
The ECB’s Mario Draghi speaks in Brussels.
Mexico’s proxy GDP looks to be 2.2% y/y.
U.S. new home sales should be 595K, down from a prior 654K.
The Fed’s Kaplan and Kashkari speak at separate events.
The BoJ releases the latest minutes.
On Tuesday, the BoK releases its minutes.
Brazil releases its crucial COPOM inflation report. This needs to get towards 4.5% annually, so Brazil can lower rates.
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index looks to be up +5.18% y/y.
On Wednesday, the ECB’s Draghi speaks in both Berlin and Frankfurt. The EU’s Juncker meets with Merkel and Hollande in Berlin.
U.S. durable goods orders (ex transport) are expected to be -1.1% m/m.
Mexico’s unemployment rate looks to be 4.0%.
Japan’s retail sales look to be down -2.2% y/y, worse than the prior -0.2% y/y rate.
Construction activity in Argentina is weak. It looks to be down -18% y/y.
On Thursday, the BoJ’s Kuroda speaks in Tokyo.
Spain’s flash HICP inflation rate should be -0.3% y/y.
Spain’s retail sales should be up +3.1% y/y.
Germany’s unemployment rate is 6.1%.
The Eurozone’s consumer sentiment index (-8.2 prior), economic sentiment index (103.5 prior), and industrial sentiment (4.4 prior) indices come out.
Brazil’s FGV inflation rate looks to be 10.76%, down from 11.49%. That’s too high still.
U.S. initial claims look great at 256K.
Mexico’s overnight rate should remain at 4.5%.
The Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington.
Japan’s unemployment rate is 3.0%
On Friday, the China Caixin PMI manufacturing index comes out. A 50.4 reading is expected, after a 50.0 prior. The official PMI comes out on the weekend, and needs to beat a prior 50.4. These are still low. A 52 print in either index would be big news.
Brazil’s unemployment rate gets to 11.8%, up from 11.6%.
Canada’s GDP moves +0.4% m/m.
University of Michigan sentiment should come in at 90.3.