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Will Parks & Cruises Lift Disney After 22% Stock Decline in 6 Months?

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Disney (DIS - Free Report) , a titan in the entertainment industry, has faced significant challenges in recent months, with its stock price plummeting 21.7% over the past six months. This sharp decline has left investors and analysts questioning the company's future prospects. However, amid this downturn, Disney's theme parks and cruise line businesses are emerging as potential catalysts for a much-needed recovery.

The company's stock performance has been impacted by various factors, including increased competition in the streaming market, concerns about consumer spending in a tough economic environment and ongoing challenges in its traditional media networks. These headwinds have overshadowed Disney's strengths, leading to a loss of investor confidence and subsequent stock price decline. Despite these challenges, Disney's theme parks and cruise line segments have shown resilience and potential for growth.

6-Months Performance

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Parks, Experiences and Products Business Back in Full Swing

Disney recently intensified efforts to revitalize its theme parks and cruise business, recognizing their potential as key drivers of the company's recovery. Following a challenging period marked by pandemic-related closures and restrictions, Disney is leveraging its iconic brand and innovative experiences to attract visitors back to its parks and ships.

The Experiences segment continued to significantly outperform pre-pandemic levels, with both revenues and operating income in fiscal third-quarter 2024 exceeding fiscal third-quarter 2019 levels by nearly 30%.

The theme park division, in particular, has been a bright spot in Disney's recent financial reports. In third-quarter fiscal 2024, Parks, Experiences and Products revenues (36.2% of revenues) rose 2.3% year over year to $8.38 billion. Domestic revenues were $5.82 billion, up 3% year over year. International revenues increased 4.6% year over year to $1.6 billion in the reported quarter.

Parks such as Walt Disney World in Florida and Disneyland in California have seen a steady increase in visitor numbers. The introduction of new attractions, immersive experiences and strategic pricing models has helped drive revenue growth in this segment by enhancing guest engagement. 

The company has strategically unveiled highly anticipated additions like Tiana's Bayou Adventure, a log flume ride based on Disney's The Princess and the Frog. It is located at Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom and will open at Disneyland in November 2024. Walt Disney World Resort hotels have started taking reservations for stays at the new Island Tower at Disney’s Polynesian Villas & Bungalows, beginning from Dec. 17, 2024. This area is also coming up with Moana’s Voyage —a whimsical, new splash area inspired by Disney’s beloved movie Moana, featuring life-size sculptures of Moana and her iconic canoe.

Additionally, Disney has implemented dynamic pricing models and reservation systems to optimize attendance and revenues.

On the cruise front, Disney Cruise Line is expanding its fleet with new ships, including the upcoming launch of Disney Treasure (December 2024), Disney Adventure (fiscal 2025) and Disney Destiny (November 2025).

The company is also exploring new itineraries and destinations to diversify its offerings. Recently, Disney Cruise Line opened Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point, a private peninsula in The Bahamas, and also announced an agreement with the Oriental Land Company to bring their Cruise Line to Japan.

These anticipated attractions, coupled with pent-up demand for travel and entertainment, position Disney's parks and cruises as potential catalysts for the company's financial rebound and stock performance improvement.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2024 revenues is currently pegged at $91.26 billion, indicating 2.7% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for fiscal 2024 earnings has moved north by 1.2% to $4.91 per share over the past 30 days, indicating 30.6% growth from the year-ago period.

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Streaming Wars and Financial Pressure Cloud DIS's Outlook

Questions remain about whether the performance of these divisions can offset challenges in other areas of Disney's business. The company's streaming service, Disney+, while popular, faces intense competition from the likes of Netflix (NFLX - Free Report) , Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) -owned Amazon Prime Video and Apple (AAPL - Free Report) -owned Apple TV+ and the need for significant content investments. Additionally, the traditional TV business continues to grapple with cord-cutting trends and shifting advertising landscapes.

Additionally, the company's substantial borrowings of $47.5 billion, coupled with a limited cash position of $5.95 billion, pose financial challenges.

Disney is trading at a premium with a 2-year trailing 12-month P/S of 1.79X compared with the Zacks Media Conglomerates industry’s 0.9X, reflecting a stretched valuation.

DIS’s 2-Year P/S TTM Ratio Depicts Stretched Valuation

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Conclusion

As Disney navigates these complex market dynamics, investors are looking for signs of a comprehensive strategy that capitalizes on the strengths of its Parks and Cruises while addressing weaknesses elsewhere. The company's upcoming financial reports and strategic announcements will be critical in assessing whether these experience-based businesses can indeed serve as a lifeline, potentially reversing the recent stock decline and setting Disney on a path to renewed growth and investor confidence.

Risk-averse investors or those with a shorter investment horizon may want to exercise caution and wait for a better entry point, given the uncertainties surrounding the company's growth prospects and the competitive pressure it faces despite the enduring power of the Disney brand. 

Disney currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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