Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Onto Innovation Stock Soars 49% in a Year: Will the Rally Continue?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Onto Innovation’s (ONTO - Free Report) shares have been performing well on the trading front, with a gain of 48.6% in the past year compared with the S&P 500 composite and sub-industry’s growth of 23.5% and 44.1%, respectively.

Closing at $192.97 as of yesterday’s trading session, ONTO stock is currently trading 19.2% below its 52-week high of $238.93, attained on July 16, 2024. 

Solid financial performance has been aiding the stock’s trajectory. ONTO outpaced estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.6%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation perspective, ONTO is trading at a premium. Going by its forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio, ONTO is trading at a multiple of 32.2, below the industry’s ratio of 6.4 in the past five years.
 

ONTO Gains From Uptake of Dragonfly Platform

Onto Innovation’s performance is gaining from increasing demand for its Dragonfly inspection system. Its Dragonfly G3 platform integrates 2D and 3D technologies to identify yield-killing defects and compute features, which are important for advanced front-end and packaging technologies. The system is witnessing strong adoption owing to higher demand for advanced packaging of AI computing devices. 

In the last reported quarter, total revenues of $242.3 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.9%. The top line expanded 27.1% year over year. The uptick was largely driven by the expansion of pilot lines for high-performance computing, which incorporates cutting-edge gate-all-around transistor architecture and high-bandwidth memory to support the growing demand in the AI sector.

Revenues surpassed the high end of the company’s guided range of $230-$240 million. Management highlighted record revenues of $164 million from its specialty and advanced packaging customers. This growth was driven by demand from the company’s AI packaging customers. 

Healthy momentum in advanced nodes sales was driven by the success of ONTO’s Atlas and Iris systems. These systems are pivotal in supporting emerging gate-all-around devices.

In the last reported quarter, ONTO secured more than $300 million in volume purchase agreements from two major customers. These agreements, which extend through 2025, pertain to investments in AI advanced packaging and gate-all-around technologies. In addition, ONTO bolstered its product portfolio with the introduction of the JetStep X500 lithography tool, specifically crafted for next-generation glass substrates used in panel-level packaging. The addition of these sensors will enable its users to collect important data needed to mature their process in a relatively shorter time.
 

ONTO Provides Strong Outlook

For the third quarter, the management expects revenues in the range of $245-$255 million. For the second half, it now expects revenues to be 5-10% stronger than the first half of 2024. 

The company remains focused on inventory reduction to boost cash-flow performance. Improvements in supply-chain initiatives are expected to drive margin performance. 

ONTO expects revenues to gain from increasing investments in gate-all-around capacity and capacity expansions by several high-bandwidth memory and logic packaging manufacturers in 2025.

Estimates Move Upward for ONTO

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ONTO’s 2024 and 2025 revenues is pegged at $976.6 million and $1.11 billion, respectively, indicating growth of 19.7% and 14% from the year-ago levels. 

The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 EPS is expected to be $5.18 and $6.33, respectively, implying a rise of 38.9% and 22.2% from the prior-year actuals. 

The consensus mark for the current quarter and 2024 EPS has increased 10% and 2.6%, respectively, in the past 60 days.

ONTO Faces Certain Headwinds

The weak global macroeconomic backdrop, forex fluctuations and fierce competition are concerns for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company.

Increasing expenses is likely to weigh on the company’s margin’s performance. For the third quarter of 2024, it expects operating expenses in the range of $64-$66 million amid higher research and development expenses.

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked stocks worth consideration in the broader technology space are Manhattan Associates (MANH - Free Report) , Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) and ANSYS (ANSS - Free Report) . While Manhattan Associates sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Adobe and ANSYS carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MANH’s 2024 EPS is pegged at $4.26, unchanged in the past 30 days. MANH’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 26.6%. The stock has surged 30.1% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Adobe’s fiscal 2024 EPS is pegged at $18.16, unchanged in the past 30 days. ADBE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.6%. The long-term earnings growth rate is 13%. Its shares have gained 6.2% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ANSS’ 2024 earnings is pegged at $9.96, unchanged in the past 30 days. ANSS’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark once, with the average surprise being 4.8%. Its shares have gained 0.3% in the past year

Published in