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Mortgage Rates Fall to a Two-Year Low: mREIT Stocks to Keep an Eye on

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The mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) industry is witnessing a rebound thanks to declining mortgage rates. This has resulted in improvement in purchase originations and refinancing activities. With this, the mREIT industry is likely to witness book value improvement in the near term as spreads in the Agency market tighten, positively impacting asset prices.    

With such positive developments, investors can keep an eye on stocks like AGNC Investment (AGNC - Free Report) and Arbor Realty (ABR - Free Report) for long-term gains.


Mortgage Rates at a Two-Year Low

The interest rate for the most popular U.S. home loan fell last week to its lowest level in two years. The decline was in anticipation of interest rates cut by the Federal Reserve.

Per the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) report, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.15% in the week ended Sept. 13. That was the lowest rate since September 2022, when it was 6.25%. This followed a 14-bps drop in the previous week.

Mortgage Banking AssociationImage Source: Mortgage Banking Association

The 30-year mortgage rate hovered around 7% for most of the year, but it has begun to cool off and has fallen since late July. The latest decline marks the seventh week of declining rates, totaling a 67-bps contraction.


Why are Mortgage Rates Falling?

The optimism about the much-awaited interest rate cut in the Fed’s policy meeting pulled the yields on long-term bonds lower, leading to a drop in mortgage rates.

The Fed was expected to trim interest rates this week. The market participants were upbeat about the interest rate cut as it would be the first one since March 2020, when the Fed slashed rates to boost economic growth derailed due to the pandemic. 

On Wednesday, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps. This brings the central bank’s benchmark rate to a range of between 4.75% and 5%. 

The rate cut by the Fed will turn out to be more favorable for the mortgage industry. This will likely lead to a further decline in mortgage rates in the upcoming period.

The below graph depicts the forecast of mortgage rates.

Mortgage Banking AssociationImage Source: Mortgage Banking Association


Mortgage Rate Decline: A Positive Development

Housing affordability challenges are declining with falling mortgage rates. With this, mortgage originations and refinancing activities are witnessing a positive trend. This will reduce operational and financial challenges for mREIT companies and increase the gain on sale margin and new investment activity.

According to data from the MBA Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending Sept. 13, 2024, mortgage application activity was up significantly, as market expectations of a rate cut from the Fed pulled mortgage rates lower. 

Refinance applications were up 24% — more than double last year’s pace, with conventional and government activity jumping to the fastest pace of refinancing since 2022. There was also an increase in purchase applications. Homebuyers are seeing improving affordability conditions, sparked by lower rates and slower home-price growth.

Rate cuts will likely increase mREITs’ net interest spreads. This will ease earnings pressure for industry players, which are currently reeling under high funding costs. This will also help the company to increase its dividend payout, which might look attractive to investors.


Two mREIT Stocks to Keep an Eye On

AGNC Investment:  AGNC is one of the mREIT stocks burdened by the higher-interest-rate environment. With an improving market scenario and the rate cut, investors are turning optimistic about AGNC stock.

AGNC primarily focuses on leveraged investments in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). That includes residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. A U.S. Government agency or a U.S. Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) guarantees the principal and interest payments for such investments.

The company has a lucrative dividend yield.

It has a track record of paying a quarterly dividend of 12 cents. AGNC’s current dividend yield is 13.64%. This is impressive compared with the industry’s average of 10.75%, representing a steady income stream.

Technical indicators also suggest a bullish approach to AGNC stock. It is trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

In the past year, AGNC has gained 22.9% compared with the industry’s growth of 5.7%. It currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold).

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Arbor Realty: This New York-headquartered REIT primarily focuses on originating and servicing loans for multi-family, single-family and other commercial real estate assets. 

ABR has a track record of paying a quarterly dividend of 43 cents. Its current dividend yield is 11.72%. This is impressive compared with the industry’s average of 10.75% and attracts investors as it represents a steady income stream.

ABR is currently trading above its 50-day SMA, reflecting bullish sentiments among investors.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

In the past year, ABR has moved up 10.5% compared with the industry’s growth of 5.7%. It currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research


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