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Why Did Natural Gas Prices Finish Down Nearly 8% Last Week?

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The U.S. Energy Department's latest inventory report showed a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies. Following this bearish data, together with hurricane-induced demand disruption, futures ended the week lower.

Natural gas is expected to remain in a volatile state depending on the weather outlook, supply/demand balance etc. In this situation, investors should focus on resilient stocks like Coterra Energy (CTRA - Free Report) and EQT Corporation (EQT - Free Report) , while it may be wise to avoid higher-risk options like Comstock Resources (CRK - Free Report) .

Natural Gas Build Larger Than Market Expectations

Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose 82 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Oct. 4, above analysts’ guidance of a 72 Bcf addition. The increase compared with the five-year (2019-2023) average net injection of 96 Bcf and last year’s growth of 85 Bcf for the reported week.

The weekly build put total natural gas stocks at 3,629 Bcf, which is 124 Bcf (3.5%) above the 2023 level and 176 Bcf (5.1%) higher than the five-year average.

The total supply of natural gas averaged 107.5 Bcf per day, up 0.2 Bcf per day on a weekly basis, due to higher shipments from Canada.

Meanwhile, daily consumption rose to 96.6 Bcf from 95.7 Bcf in the previous week, mainly reflecting higher residential/commercial usage, partly offset by lower natural gas consumed for power generation.

Natural Gas Prices Finish Lower

Natural gas prices fell last week, following a larger-than-expected inventory build. Prices were also pulled down by demand destruction from Hurricane Milton, which led to significant power outages and cooling temperatures. November futures closed at $2.632 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking a 7.8% decrease — the second loss in as many weeks. 

Natural gas prices remain pressured by strong production, high stockpiles, and weak demand due to mild weather. Current inventories are significantly above last year’s levels and the five-year average, signaling a bearish outlook. Investors must remember that natural gas prices dipped to a four-month low of $1.88 in late August, underscoring the market's ongoing volatility.

How Should Investors Play Natural Gas Stocks?

The natural gas market continues to struggle with oversupply, along with shifts in weather and production dynamics. As such, investors should remain cautious. Focusing on fundamentally strong stocks like Coterra Energy and EQT Corporation may offer more stability amid the uncertainty.

Coterra Energy: It is an independent upstream operator primarily engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas. Headquartered in Houston, TX, the firm owns some 183,000 net acres in the gas-producing Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. This #3 Ranked company churned out an average of 2,779.8 million cubic feet daily of the commodity from these assets in the June quarter.

Coterra beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, the average being 5.9%. Valued at around $18.4 billion, Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) CTRA has fallen 14.8% in a year.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

EQT Corporation: EQT holds the position of being the largest natural gas producer in the domestic market based on average daily sales volumes. With a primary emphasis on the Appalachian Basin, spanning Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the company’s share of natural gas in its overall production/sales is more than 90%.

EQT beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. This #3 Ranked natural gas exporter has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 108.5%, on average. EQT shares have moved down 14% in a year.

On the other hand, companies like Comstock Resources appear risky in the near term. CRK is a leading independent natural gas producer with operations focused on the Haynesville Shale in North Louisiana and East Texas.

Reflecting the risks around natural gas, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) company’s EPS has seen downward revisions. Over the past 60 days, analysts have lowered their estimates for both the current quarter and fiscal year by 133% and 106%, respectively.


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