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Is a Beat in the Offing for American Airlines in Q3 Earnings?

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American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 24, before market open.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised upward in excess of 200% in the past 30 days and is currently pegged at 13 cents per share. The consensus mark implies a 65.8% decline from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2024 revenues is currently pegged at $13.5 billion, which indicates a 0.06% uptick from the year-ago actual.

AAL has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark once). The average beat is 103.2%.

Given this backdrop, let us examine the factors that are likely to have influenced American Airlines’ performance in the quarter to be reported.

Low fuel costs are expected to have aided AAL’s bottom-line performance in the September quarter. Oil price has declined 14% in the July-September period. For the third quarter of 2024, we expect the average fuel cost to be $2.68 per gallon, down 8% from year-ago actual.

With the summer season mostly falling in the third quarter, buoyant air travel demand in the summer holiday period is likely to have boosted the top line in the quarter under review.

AAL is burdened with expenses related to non-fuel unit costs due to high labor costs. Our estimate for non-fuel unit costs hints at a 1.7% increase from the year-ago level. Our estimate for expenses on salaries, wages and benefits hints at a 4.3% increase from the year-ago level.

What Our Model Predicts

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

AAL has an Earnings ESP of +32.87% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Q2 Highlights

American Airlines’ second-quarter 2024 earnings (excluding 8 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.09 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04. In the year-ago quarter, AAL reported earnings of $1.92 per share. The year-over-year bottom-line contraction was mainly due to high costs. Operating revenues of $14.33 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.42 billion but increased 2% year over year. Passenger revenues, accounting for 92.1% of the top line, increased to $13.2 billion from $13 billion recorded a year ago.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider as well, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat second-quarter 2024 earnings.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +18.66% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 29, before market open.

JBLU surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once. The average beat is 42%.

C.H. Robinson (CHRW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.80% and a Zacks Rank #3. CHRW is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 30. Low operating costs are expected to have aided CHRW’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings has been revised 1.9% upward in the last 60 days. CHRW surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once, the average beat being 7.3%.


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