Valero Energy Corporation (VLO Quick QuoteVLO - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 24, before the opening bell.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

In the last reported quarter, Valero Energy’s adjusted earnings of $2.71 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.61, primarily due to an increase in refining throughput volumes. Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 11.52%. This is depicted in the graph below: 

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $1.29 has witnessed five downward revisions and no upward revision in the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a decline of 82.78% from the prior-year reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $33.04 billion indicates a 13.97% decline from the year-ago recorded figure.

Factors to Consider

Valero Energy is expected to have maintained a stable performance in the third quarter, owing to high refinery utilization rates during this period. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, spot prices for West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 7.1% from the prior-year reported figure. This is likely to have led to a reduction in input costs, thereby aiding VLO’s profitability in the third quarter.

However, challenges are likely to have loomed due to weaker global refinery margins, mainly due to the declining demand for refined petroleum products, caused by a global economic slowdown. Furthermore, new refining capacity abroad owing to the startup of new refineries in the Middle East and Africa is anticipated to have heightened competition in the market, resulting in a downward pressure on prices for refined products. The weaker global demand for refined products and heightened competition abroad might have negatively impacted VLO’s profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.

These factors are anticipated to have affected demand and pricing dynamics, potentially hampering Valero Energy’s quarterly performance.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for VLO this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Valero Energy has an Earnings ESP of -10.67%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: VLO currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG Quick QuoteLNG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.35% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Cheniere Energy is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Oct. 31. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.87 per share, suggesting a 21.10% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA Quick QuoteMUSA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.76% and a Zacks Rank #3.

MUSA is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Oct. 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $6.69 per share, suggesting a 13% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.

Oceaneering International, Inc. (OII Quick QuoteOII - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Oceaneering is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Oct. 23. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 44 cents per share, suggesting a 15.79% improvement from the prior-year reported figure.