Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Will Screening Sales Drive Exact Sciences' Q3 Earnings?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Exact Sciences (EXAS - Free Report) is slated to report its third-quarter 2024 earnings on Nov. 5.

Exact Sciences is a leading cancer diagnostics company, which focuses on the development of new and innovative tests for the prevention of cancer through early detection. The company’s portfolio of FDA-approved flagship cancer screening and diagnostics tests includes Cologuard and Oncotype DX.

Exact Sciences has an impeccable earnings surprise history so far. The company reported a loss of 9 cents per share in the second quarter of 2024, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 75.68%. EXAS exceeded earnings estimates in three of the last four trailing quarters and matched the same on one occasion, delivering an average earnings surprise of 56.19%.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Q3 Estimates for EXAS

For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Exact Sciences’ revenues is pegged at $717.26 million, indicating an increase of 14.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

Exact Sciences Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exact Sciences Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exact Sciences Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exact Sciences Corporation Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter 2024 loss per share of 20 cents indicates a decline from the year-ago level of breakeven.

Estimate Revision Trend Ahead of EXAS' Earnings

Estimates for Exact Sciences’ third-quarter earnings remained unchanged at a loss of 20 cents in the past 60 days.

Let us see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors to Consider

Exact Sciences reports its revenues under two major segments — Screening and Precision Oncology.

Screening revenues in the third quarter are expected to have increased year over year. The performance is likely to have been driven by consistently growing Cologuard orders as health systems, healthcare professionals and payers are increasingly including the test in their practices. Over the past few months, the company has been putting efforts to drive adoption, especially within rescreens and care gap programs. This, too, might have boosted the performance of this business in the third quarter.

Earlier, EXAS expected Screening revenues between $545 million and $555 million (or a growth of 17% at midpoint) for the third quarter. The company expected 2024’s second-half screening revenues to be about 54% of full-year revenues, consistent with the historical average. This bullish guidance was based on several key factors, including sequential growth in the number of people eligible for the next Cologuard test and consistent improvement in REIT screen success rate. EXAS has also made progress by sending patients digital reminders and educating providers about the option to order Cologuard in advance of a patient's three-year Cologuard anniversary. This has immensely helped in retaining customers.

These are all expected to significantly boost the top-line result for Q3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $551.6 million.

Precision Oncology revenues are likely to have been boosted by laboratory service revenues from global Oncotype DX and therapy selection tests. Exact Sciences has increased Oncotype DX adoption internationally by about 10% over the past year. Oncotype DX has been globally recognized as standard-of-care and included in all major guidelines. The accelerated Oncotype DX growth internationally is likely to have contributed significantly to the third-quarter sales of Precision Oncology.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from this segment is pegged at $166 million.

What Our Model Unveils for EXAS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Exact Sciences this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Exact Sciences currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: EXAS currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks in the same industry that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Atea Pharmaceuticals (AVIR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.13% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is expected to release third-quarter 2024 results soon. AVIR’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, the average surprise being 5.23%.

RadNet (RDNT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +20.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is expected to release third-quarter 2024 results shortly.

RDNT’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and met in one, the average surprise being 98.23%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RadNet’s third-quarter EPS indicates an increase of 21.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

TransMedics Group (TMDX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +26.63% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 28.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS implies a surge of 333.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Published in