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CF Industries to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2024 results after the closing bell on Oct. 30.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
CF Industries missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and beat it once. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.1%, on average.
CF is expected to have benefited from healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and lower natural gas costs in the third quarter. Softer nitrogen prices are likely to have impacted its performance.
Shares of CF Industries have gained 4.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 9.8% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What Our Model Unveils for CF Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CF this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for CF is +7.08%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter is currently pegged at $1.05. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
What Do CF’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries' third-quarter total sales is currently pegged at $1,213.9 million, which indicates a roughly 4.7% decline year over year.
Our estimate for total sales in the Ammonia segment is currently pinned at $219.5 million, indicating a 6.6% decline on a year-over-year basis. The same for the Granular Urea segment is $326.8 million, which suggests a decrease of 9.2%.
Our estimate for sales of the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Solution segment currently stands at $379.7 million, which suggests a decline of 12.7% year over year.
Our estimate for total sales of the Ammonium Nitrate segment is $91.7 million, which indicates a decline of 19.6% year over year.
Factors at Play for CF Stock in Q3
CF Industries is expected to have benefited from higher global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, being driven by strong agricultural demand. Demand for nitrogen is likely to have remained healthy in the third quarter on the back of recovering industrial demand and favorable farm economics.
Lower natural gas prices are also expected to have led to a decline in the company's cost of sales in the quarter to be reported. CF saw a decline in natural gas costs in the second quarter of 2024. The average cost of natural gas fell to $1.90 per MMBtu in the quarter from $2.75 per MMBtu in the year-ago quarter. The benefits of reduced gas costs are expected to have continued in the third quarter.
Weaker nitrogen prices are likely to have been a challenge for CF Industries. Global nitrogen prices have declined since the beginning of 2023. Higher global supply availability driven by higher global operating rates due to lower global energy costs has resulted in a decline in prices. Lower average selling prices weighed on CF's top line in the second quarter. The weak pricing environment is likely to have persisted in the third quarter.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Stock Price and EPS Surprise
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 97 cents.
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The consensus mark for DD’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.03.
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +12.25%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 16 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
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CF Industries to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2024 results after the closing bell on Oct. 30.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
CF Industries missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and beat it once. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.1%, on average.
CF is expected to have benefited from healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and lower natural gas costs in the third quarter. Softer nitrogen prices are likely to have impacted its performance.
Shares of CF Industries have gained 4.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 9.8% decline.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What Our Model Unveils for CF Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CF this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for CF is +7.08%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter is currently pegged at $1.05. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
What Do CF’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries' third-quarter total sales is currently pegged at $1,213.9 million, which indicates a roughly 4.7% decline year over year.
Our estimate for total sales in the Ammonia segment is currently pinned at $219.5 million, indicating a 6.6% decline on a year-over-year basis. The same for the Granular Urea segment is $326.8 million, which suggests a decrease of 9.2%.
Our estimate for sales of the Urea Ammonium Nitrate Solution segment currently stands at $379.7 million, which suggests a decline of 12.7% year over year.
Our estimate for total sales of the Ammonium Nitrate segment is $91.7 million, which indicates a decline of 19.6% year over year.
Factors at Play for CF Stock in Q3
CF Industries is expected to have benefited from higher global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, being driven by strong agricultural demand. Demand for nitrogen is likely to have remained healthy in the third quarter on the back of recovering industrial demand and favorable farm economics.
Lower natural gas prices are also expected to have led to a decline in the company's cost of sales in the quarter to be reported. CF saw a decline in natural gas costs in the second quarter of 2024. The average cost of natural gas fell to $1.90 per MMBtu in the quarter from $2.75 per MMBtu in the year-ago quarter. The benefits of reduced gas costs are expected to have continued in the third quarter.
Weaker nitrogen prices are likely to have been a challenge for CF Industries. Global nitrogen prices have declined since the beginning of 2023. Higher global supply availability driven by higher global operating rates due to lower global energy costs has resulted in a decline in prices. Lower average selling prices weighed on CF's top line in the second quarter. The weak pricing environment is likely to have persisted in the third quarter.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Stock Price and EPS Surprise
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Quote
Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 30, has an Earnings ESP of +3.63% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 97 cents.
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The consensus mark for DD’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.03.
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +12.25%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 16 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.