Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Will Non-COVID Drugs Again Boost Pfizer's Top Line in Q3 Earnings?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) COVID revenues have been declining due to lower demand. The company records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) , for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2024 direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $1.03 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $1.3 billion.

Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $1.13 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $715.4 million.

However, Pfizer’s non-COVID operational revenues improved in the first half of 2024, driven by its key in-line products like Prevnar, Vyndaqel and Eliquis, new launches like Abrysvo, Velsipity, Penbraya, newly acquired products like Nurtec as well as those acquired from Seagen (December 2023). The trend is expected to have continued in the third quarter.

Year to date, Pfizer’s stock has declined 1.2% against an increase of 17.0% for the industry

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Drug Sales Estimates: Vyndaqel, Prevnar, Eliquis

Vyndaqel/Vyndamax sales in the third quarter are likely to have benefited from strong demand trends, driven by continued strong uptake of transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy indication, primarily in the United States and developed Europe. The Vyndaqel family includes global revenues from Vyndaqel as well as revenues for Vyndamax in the United States and Vynmac in Japan.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $1.41 billion while our model estimates the same to be $1.38 billion.

Sales of Prevnar family of vaccines declined in the second quarter due to fewer adult vaccinations in the United States and lower pediatric indication sales in certain emerging markets and Japan. It remains to be seen if sales trends improved in the third quarter. The Prevnar family includes revenues from Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 (pediatric and adult) and Prevnar 20 (adult and pediatric).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our model estimate for sales of the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.8 billion.

In addition, alliance revenues and direct sales from Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) for Eliquis are likely to have provided top-line support, driven by continued share gains in the oral anti-coagulant market. However, sales are likely to have been hurt by generic competition in some international markets due to the loss of patent exclusivity.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.54 billion, while our model estimate is $1.53 billion.

How Will PFE’s New Drugs & Seagen Products Perform?

Investors will be keen to know the sales numbers of Pfizer’s several newly launched drugs like RSV vaccine Abrysvo, Velsipity pill for ulcerative colitis, pentavalent meningococcal vaccine Penbraya and one-time gene therapy Beqvez (fidanacogene elaparvovec) for hemophilia B.

Sales of Pfizer’s RSV vaccine, Abrysvo are likely to have been higher in the third quarter than the previous two quarters, in line with seasonal vaccine trends.

The acquisition of Seagen closed in mid-December 2023. The acquisition added four antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs — Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak — to Pfizer’s cancer portfolio. These drugs are likely to have boosted Pfizer’s oncology sales in the third quarter. Pfizer is particularly witnessing strong demand for Padcev.

Among other acquired products, Nurtec sales are likely to have improved sequentially, like in the past few quarters, driven by strong demand. However, regarding another newly acquired drug, Oxbryta, last month Pfizer announced that it is voluntarily withdrawing all lots of the sickle cell disease drug from all global markets where it is approved.

Overall, though Pfizer’s COVID revenues are declining, its non-COVID drugs and potential contribution from new and newly acquired products are likely to have contributed to top-line growth in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $15.19 billion and 64 cents per share, respectively.

PFE’s Zacks Rank & Stock to Consider

Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently.

Pfizer Inc. Price and Consensus

Pfizer Inc. Price and Consensus

Pfizer Inc. price-consensus-chart | Pfizer Inc. Quote

A better-ranked large drugmaker is Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Estimates for Lilly’s 2024 earnings have declined from $16.47 to $13.83 per share over the past 30 days. The decline in estimates could be due to costs related to the acquisition of Morphic, which was closed in August and should be recorded as a charge against earnings in the third quarter.  For 2025, earnings estimates have risen from $23.97 to $24.24 per share over the same timeframe. Year to date, Lilly’s stock has risen 53.1%.

Lilly beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 69.07%.

Published in