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Can Mounjaro, Zepbound Help Eli Lilly Top Earnings Estimates Again?
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Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) will report its third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 30, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $12.03 billion and $1.53 per share, respectively.
The strong sales performance of its FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound, helped Lilly deliver exceptionally strong results in the last report quarter. We expect the trend to continue in the third quarter.
Tirzepatide is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist. The GLP-1 segment is an important class of drugs for multiple cardiometabolic diseases and is gaining significant popularity. GLP-1 drugs work by mimicking the hormone GLP-1, resulting in weight loss, lowering hemoglobin A1c and reducing cardiovascular risks.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
LLY’s Mounjaro & Zepbound Sales Remain Strong
Mounjaro was launched in mid-2022, while Zepbound was launched in November 2023. Despite a short time on the market, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, as they are seeing exceptional demand growth.
Lilly faced supply constraints for incretin-based products like Trulicity, Mounjaro and Zepbound in the first half of 2024. Demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound has been extremely strong and exceeded supply. The weekly prescription volume of Mounjaro and Zepbound was volatile in the first half of the year due to challenges in fulfilling high demand. Lilly is investing in new advanced manufacturing plants and lines in the United States and Europe to increase supply. With the increase in production volumes, channel dynamics and stocking levels in the United States improved in the second quarter, which boosted sales growth. The improved supply is expected to have boosted sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound in the third quarter too.
However, from the second half of 2024, Lilly expects typical pricing headwinds for Mounjaro, like for all diabetes medicines, as savings card dynamics should cease to have a notable effect on realized price comparisons to base periods.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our model estimate for Mounjaro sales is $3.7 billion. Our model estimate for Zepbound is $1.5 billion.
Last month, Lilly launched a discounted single-dose vial version of Zepbound, which is expected to broaden access for obesity patients, especially those without insurance. This might have boosted Zepbound sales in the quarter.
Lilly’s tirzepatide medicines face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) semaglutide. Semaglutide is approved as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes and as Wegovy injection for weight management. Wegovy sales have also remained strong. Though Novo Nordisk is also trying to improve the supply of its semaglutide drugs, its product remains in short supply. Novo Nordisk is expected to report its third-quarter results on Nov. 6.
How Will LLY’s Other Drugs Perform?
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, higher demand and volume growth for Lilly’s key growth drugs like Emgality, Jardiance, Olumiant, Retevmo, Taltz, and Verzenio are likely to have provided top-line support, driven by increased demand trends.
While volumes are expected to have increased for most drugs, lower realized prices are likely to have continued to hurt sales of most drugs like Trulicity. Sales of Trulicity are likely to have been hurt by competitive dynamics and supply constraints in the United States. In international markets, Trulicity volumes are affected by the company’s measures to manage strong demand amid tight supply. Doctors have been asked not to start new patients on Trulicity in order to minimize disruption to existing patients.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant and Emgality is $1.13 billion, $837.0 million, $1.38 billion, $822.0 million, $241 million and $163 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality are $1.1 billion, $836.6 million, $1.43 billion, $823.3 million, $246.3 million and $155.4 million, respectively.
Newer products (products launched from 2022 onwards) like Ebglyss, Jaypirca and Omvoh are likely to have contributed to sales growth.
In July, Lilly won a long-awaited FDA approval for Kisunla (donanemab) for treating early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. Kisunla was approved in Japan in September. Lilly is expected to discuss the commercialization plans for Kisunla on the third-quarter conference call. Kisunla is only the second drug on the market to treat Alzheimer's disease after Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) and its Japan-based partner Eisai’s Leqembi.
LLY’s Zacks Rank & A Stock to Consider
Eli Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently.
Eli Lilly and Company Stock Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AstraZeneca’s earnings has risen from $4.05 to $4.07 per share for 2024 over the past 30 days, while that for 2025 has risen from $4.71 per share to $4.72 per share. AstraZeneca’s shares have risen 12.8% year to date.
AstraZeneca beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one, delivering a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 4.74%.
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Can Mounjaro, Zepbound Help Eli Lilly Top Earnings Estimates Again?
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) will report its third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 30, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $12.03 billion and $1.53 per share, respectively.
The strong sales performance of its FDA-approved tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound, helped Lilly deliver exceptionally strong results in the last report quarter. We expect the trend to continue in the third quarter.
Tirzepatide is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist. The GLP-1 segment is an important class of drugs for multiple cardiometabolic diseases and is gaining significant popularity. GLP-1 drugs work by mimicking the hormone GLP-1, resulting in weight loss, lowering hemoglobin A1c and reducing cardiovascular risks.
Lilly’s stock has risen 53.6% so far this year compared with an increase of 17.1% for the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
LLY’s Mounjaro & Zepbound Sales Remain Strong
Mounjaro was launched in mid-2022, while Zepbound was launched in November 2023. Despite a short time on the market, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, as they are seeing exceptional demand growth.
Lilly faced supply constraints for incretin-based products like Trulicity, Mounjaro and Zepbound in the first half of 2024. Demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound has been extremely strong and exceeded supply. The weekly prescription volume of Mounjaro and Zepbound was volatile in the first half of the year due to challenges in fulfilling high demand. Lilly is investing in new advanced manufacturing plants and lines in the United States and Europe to increase supply. With the increase in production volumes, channel dynamics and stocking levels in the United States improved in the second quarter, which boosted sales growth. The improved supply is expected to have boosted sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound in the third quarter too.
However, from the second half of 2024, Lilly expects typical pricing headwinds for Mounjaro, like for all diabetes medicines, as savings card dynamics should cease to have a notable effect on realized price comparisons to base periods.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our model estimate for Mounjaro sales is $3.7 billion. Our model estimate for Zepbound is $1.5 billion.
Last month, Lilly launched a discounted single-dose vial version of Zepbound, which is expected to broaden access for obesity patients, especially those without insurance. This might have boosted Zepbound sales in the quarter.
Lilly’s tirzepatide medicines face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) semaglutide. Semaglutide is approved as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes and as Wegovy injection for weight management. Wegovy sales have also remained strong. Though Novo Nordisk is also trying to improve the supply of its semaglutide drugs, its product remains in short supply. Novo Nordisk is expected to report its third-quarter results on Nov. 6.
How Will LLY’s Other Drugs Perform?
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, higher demand and volume growth for Lilly’s key growth drugs like Emgality, Jardiance, Olumiant, Retevmo, Taltz, and Verzenio are likely to have provided top-line support, driven by increased demand trends.
While volumes are expected to have increased for most drugs, lower realized prices are likely to have continued to hurt sales of most drugs like Trulicity. Sales of Trulicity are likely to have been hurt by competitive dynamics and supply constraints in the United States. In international markets, Trulicity volumes are affected by the company’s measures to manage strong demand amid tight supply. Doctors have been asked not to start new patients on Trulicity in order to minimize disruption to existing patients.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant and Emgality is $1.13 billion, $837.0 million, $1.38 billion, $822.0 million, $241 million and $163 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality are $1.1 billion, $836.6 million, $1.43 billion, $823.3 million, $246.3 million and $155.4 million, respectively.
Newer products (products launched from 2022 onwards) like Ebglyss, Jaypirca and Omvoh are likely to have contributed to sales growth.
In July, Lilly won a long-awaited FDA approval for Kisunla (donanemab) for treating early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. Kisunla was approved in Japan in September. Lilly is expected to discuss the commercialization plans for Kisunla on the third-quarter conference call. Kisunla is only the second drug on the market to treat Alzheimer's disease after Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) and its Japan-based partner Eisai’s Leqembi.
LLY’s Zacks Rank & A Stock to Consider
Eli Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently.
Eli Lilly and Company Stock Price and EPS Surprise
Eli Lilly and Company price-eps-surprise | Eli Lilly and Company Quote
A large drugmaker worth considering is AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) , which has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AstraZeneca’s earnings has risen from $4.05 to $4.07 per share for 2024 over the past 30 days, while that for 2025 has risen from $4.71 per share to $4.72 per share. AstraZeneca’s shares have risen 12.8% year to date.
AstraZeneca beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one, delivering a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 4.74%.