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On Wednesday, Wall Street investors were selling stocks ahead of key mega-cap tech earnings and the highly anticipated U.S. presidential election on November 5th. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) was hit the hardest of the major indices. QQQ flushed more than 2% Thursday, erasing its early-week gains. Despite the worst down day in weeks, QQQ has been higher for seven straight weeks.
How do Stocks Act Around Presidential Elections?
Markets tend to dislike uncertainty. Unsurprisingly, equities tend to be jittery around U.S. presidential elections, especially one as contentious as the 2024 election. In most instances, this volatility tends to subside once the market uncertainty is alleviated and the results are finalized. As I have mentioned in previous commentaries, U.S. presidents can have a significant impact on certain industry groups (for example, clean energy might do better under a Harris admin) but less of an impact on the general market. For instance, Trump and Obama both scored ~16% annualized returns during their respective administrations.
Technical View
Today’s correction was due, even beyond the election uncertainty and the tight presidential race. QQQ has been drifting higher for seven straight weeks, so some profit-taking is normal. Nevertheless, QQQ is retreating to its 10-week moving average for the first time since breaking out. The 10-week moving average is an intermediate dip buying zone in bull markets, like the one we are in now.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), a market fear gauge, is running into a supply zone that has acted as resistance since early September.
Seasonality
Historical seasonality favors the bulls in the short term and into year-end. According to Jeffrey Hirsh of “The Stock Trader’s Almanac”, the Nasdaq is up 9 of the last 12 first trading days of November. Meanwhile, the month of November is the strongest month of the year over the past decade and is the best election year month since 1950.
Earnings Are Robust
Sheraz Mian, Director of Research at Zacks Investment Research, points out that “Total Q3 earnings for the 258 S&P 500 members that have reported results through Wednesday, October 30th are up 8.9% on 5.0% higher revenues, with 74.4% beating EPS estimates and 59.3% beating revenue estimates.”
Alphabet and Tesla each reported results that beat Zacks Consensus Estimates by more than 15%. Tesla beat consensus estimates for the first time in several quarters.
Meanwhile, the AI revolution shows little signs of slowing. Though Advanced Micro Devices fell on weaker-than-expected forward guidance, data center growth more than doubled year-over-year. Finally, rate-sensitive stocks like Root and Carvana exploded post-earnings, as Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are expected to gift the market with further rate cuts.
Sentiment
Over the past few days, sentiment has plunged from “greed” to near “fear” levels, according to the CNN Fear/Greed Index. History tells us that equities like when investors have one foot out the door and tend to climb the wall of worry.
Bottom Line
Wall Street jitters in the face of a hotly contested presidential election is the norm, not the exception. Nonetheless, investors should continue to follow the bull market course.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.0 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +44.9%, +48.4% and +55.2% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Alphabet, Tesla, Advanced Micro Devices, Root and Carvana
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – November 1, 2024 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) , Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , Advanced Micro Devices (AMD - Free Report) , Root (ROOT - Free Report) and Carvana (CVNA - Free Report) .
Election Looms: More Volatility Ahead?
On Wednesday, Wall Street investors were selling stocks ahead of key mega-cap tech earnings and the highly anticipated U.S. presidential election on November 5th. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) was hit the hardest of the major indices. QQQ flushed more than 2% Thursday, erasing its early-week gains. Despite the worst down day in weeks, QQQ has been higher for seven straight weeks.
How do Stocks Act Around Presidential Elections?
Markets tend to dislike uncertainty. Unsurprisingly, equities tend to be jittery around U.S. presidential elections, especially one as contentious as the 2024 election. In most instances, this volatility tends to subside once the market uncertainty is alleviated and the results are finalized. As I have mentioned in previous commentaries, U.S. presidents can have a significant impact on certain industry groups (for example, clean energy might do better under a Harris admin) but less of an impact on the general market. For instance, Trump and Obama both scored ~16% annualized returns during their respective administrations.
Technical View
Today’s correction was due, even beyond the election uncertainty and the tight presidential race. QQQ has been drifting higher for seven straight weeks, so some profit-taking is normal. Nevertheless, QQQ is retreating to its 10-week moving average for the first time since breaking out. The 10-week moving average is an intermediate dip buying zone in bull markets, like the one we are in now.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), a market fear gauge, is running into a supply zone that has acted as resistance since early September.
Seasonality
Historical seasonality favors the bulls in the short term and into year-end. According to Jeffrey Hirsh of “The Stock Trader’s Almanac”, the Nasdaq is up 9 of the last 12 first trading days of November. Meanwhile, the month of November is the strongest month of the year over the past decade and is the best election year month since 1950.
Earnings Are Robust
Sheraz Mian, Director of Research at Zacks Investment Research, points out that “Total Q3 earnings for the 258 S&P 500 members that have reported results through Wednesday, October 30th are up 8.9% on 5.0% higher revenues, with 74.4% beating EPS estimates and 59.3% beating revenue estimates.”
Alphabet and Tesla each reported results that beat Zacks Consensus Estimates by more than 15%. Tesla beat consensus estimates for the first time in several quarters.
Meanwhile, the AI revolution shows little signs of slowing. Though Advanced Micro Devices fell on weaker-than-expected forward guidance, data center growth more than doubled year-over-year. Finally, rate-sensitive stocks like Root and Carvana exploded post-earnings, as Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are expected to gift the market with further rate cuts.
Sentiment
Over the past few days, sentiment has plunged from “greed” to near “fear” levels, according to the CNN Fear/Greed Index. History tells us that equities like when investors have one foot out the door and tend to climb the wall of worry.
Bottom Line
Wall Street jitters in the face of a hotly contested presidential election is the norm, not the exception. Nonetheless, investors should continue to follow the bull market course.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.0 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +44.9%, +48.4% and +55.2% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
See Stocks Free >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.