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Should You Go For Gold ETFs in 2025?

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So far in 2024, the gold spot price index has returned about 28%. This week, gold extended its recent gains to above $2,650 per ounce on Thursday, rising for the fourth successive session, as investors sought protection in the safe-haven metal as geopolitical uncertainty intensified with escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.

More Rally in Cards in 2025?

The price of gold has soared to new heights this year and is well-positioned to rise into early 2025, rising to new record highs, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the price will reach $2,700 by early next year, thanks to the Fed rate cuts and gold purchases by emerging market central banks.

Central banks in emerging markets are seeking to lower reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves holdings and are intending to hedge against inflation. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, central banks have been buying gold at a hurried pace — roughly triple the amount prior. Goldman Sachs Research expects the buying spree to persist amid concerns about U.S. financial sanctions and the growing U.S. sovereign debt burden.

The metal could get an additional boost if the United States imposes new financial sanctions or if concerns mount about the U.S. debt burden. Gold offers value as a portfolio hedge against developments such as tariffs promised by Trump, Fed subordination risk and debt sustainability fears.

Gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation. President-elect Trump’s promised tariff war is expected to boost inflation once again. In this scenario, gold may gain an upper hand.

Anticipation of Increased ETF Demand

The start of Fed rate cuts from September 2024 will brighten the appeal for non-interest-yielding gold market. Some analysts anticipate that gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings will rise as the Fed implemented interest rate cuts. They believe ETF demand could increase significantly as interest rate adjustments typically influence these buyers.

Gold’s Historical Performance

In the last 45 years, the gold spot price index had a compound annual growth rate of 5.52%, a standard deviation of 17.97%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.34. Over the last 10 years, average annualized return of gold is 8% while last five years yielded average annualized return of 12.1%.

The gold spot price index had a positive return during 26 of the 45 years (58%) between 1979 and 2023. The gold spot price index had a positive return during 287 of the 549 months (52%) between 1979 and 2024.

Investors should note that most strategists expect a more muted return from the stock market in 2025 after two consecutive years of stellar run. If stocks rally fizzle, gold can flex muscle (read: How to Play Wall Street Stocks in 2025? ETF Strategies in Focus).

Gold ETFs in Focus

SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM - Free Report) , GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR - Free Report) and Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU - Free Report) are thus primed for gains.


 

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