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Why Is Molina (MOH) Down 8.5% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Molina (MOH - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Molina due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Molina Healthcare Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Growing Premiums

Molina Healthcare reported third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.01, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.96. Also, the bottom line grew 19% from the year-ago period.

Total revenues amounted to $10.3 billion, which improved 20.9% year over year. Also, the top line outpaced the consensus mark by 3.8%.

The strong third-quarter results were aided by membership growth in each of the business lines of Molina Healthcare. This, in turn, drove premiums, the most significant contributor to a health insurer’s top line. However, the upside was partly offset by escalating medical care costs.

Q3 Operational Update

Premium revenues of $9.7 billion increased 18% year over year in the quarter under review, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.6 billion and our estimate of $9.5 billion. The improvement stemmed from contract wins, buyouts and an expanding nationwide footprint, partly offset by Medicaid redeterminations.

As of Sept. 30, 2024, total membership improved 8% year over year to around 5.6 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate. The health insurer witnessed year-over-year increases in customers within its Medicaid, Medicare and Marketplace businesses.

Investment income rose 5.4% year over year to $118 million and beat the consensus mark of $117.1 million.

Total operating expenses of $9.9 billion increased 20.6% year over year and were higher than our model estimate of $9.4 billion due to a significant rise in medical care costs coupled with higher general and administrative expenses and premium tax expenses. Adjusted general and administrative expense ratio decreased to 6.4% in the third quarter from 7.1% a year ago. Interest expenses of $29 million rose 7.4% year over year.

The consolidated medical care ratio (medical costs as a percentage of premium revenues), or MCR, was 89.2% in the quarter under review. The metric rose from 88.7% a year ago and came higher than the consensus mark of 88.4%. Also, the figure was higher than our estimate of 88%.

Molina Healthcare’s adjusted net income increased 18% year over year to $347 million but missed our estimate of $349.3 million.

Financial Update (as of Sept. 30, 2024)

Molina Healthcare exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $4.7 billion, which declined from the 2023-end level of $4.8 billion. Total assets of $15.8 billion rose from the $14.9 billion figure at 2023-end.

Long-term debt of $2.3 billion rose from $2.2 billion at 2023-end.

Total stockholders’ equity of $4.8 billion increased from the $4.2 billion figure at 2023-end.

Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $868 million in the first nine months of the year compared with $2.4 billion in the same year-ago period. The significant decline was due to differences in timing in government receivables and payables.

2024 Guidance Reiterated

Management continues to expect premium revenues at around $38 billion, which indicates an improvement of around 17% from the 2023 reported figure. Adjusted EPS is forecasted at a minimum of $23.50 this year, which implies a rise of roughly 13% from the 2023 figure. Increased net investment income and robust performance in the Marketplace business are expected to offset headwinds witnessed in Medicaid and Medicare in the second half of 2024.

Adjusted net income is projected to be $1.4 billion, while GAAP net income is expected at $1.3 billion for 2024. Total membership is estimated to be 5.7 million by 2024-end, which indicates growth of 14.7% from the 2023 figure. Consolidated MCR is likely to stay at 88.2%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, Molina has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Molina has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Molina belongs to the Zacks Medical - HMOs industry. Another stock from the same industry, UnitedHealth Group (UNH - Free Report) , has gained 6.5% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.

UnitedHealth reported revenues of $100.82 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +9.2%. EPS of $7.15 for the same period compares with $6.56 a year ago.

For the current quarter, UnitedHealth is expected to post earnings of $6.74 per share, indicating a change of +9.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.4% over the last 30 days.

UnitedHealth has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.


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