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Year-to-date, Wall Street is enjoying one of its best presidential election years ever, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 26% in 2024. Per usual, the move seems more obvious than in hindsight than it was in real-time. For example, multiple geopolitical conflicts are occurring in Europe and the Middle East, interest rates remain at elevated levels, and many investors are concerned about valuations and wonder how much fuel the artificial intelligence buildout has left in the tank. That said, there are several reasons to remain bullish equities into year-end, including:
Presidential Election Year Seasonality
Historical seasonality trends have been a fantastic guide for investors. Though trading volumes tend to dip into the Thanksgiving holiday, stocks historically tend to grind higher into the end of November. Meanwhile, Ryan Detrick of Carson Research points out that, “No month is more likely to be higher than December in an election year.” Using data going back to 1950, the month of December is higher 83% of the time during presidential election years.
Broad Market Participation
A common bearish argument amongst Wall Street investors has been that there is a lack of broad participation, or breadth, in the market. However, the slim participation argument has been flipped on its head recently. For example, the Russell 2000 Index ETF is up more than 12% in November and is finally approaching its all-time highs from 2021.
AI Spending Isn’t Slowing Down
Business spending on AI surged 500% this year to $13.8 billion, according to Menlo Ventures. Meanwhile, Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest that the future may even be brighter. Analysts anticipate that Nvidia’s earnings growth will balloon to 123.08% year-over-year.
Year-End Window Dressing
Institutional investors often look to get winning stocks “on their books” and “window dress” their portfolios to make them look better when they send out year-end statements to clients. As a result, institutional investors may drive up 2024 winners like Coinbase, Tesla and Astera Labs.
Nasdaq Breakout
TheNasdaq 100 ETF is on the verge of breaking out of a three-month base structure.
Bottom Line
Despite the stellar performance thus far in U.S. equities, several data points suggest that its not too late to get long stocks for an end of year rally.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.0 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +44.9%, +48.4% and +55.2% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Nvidia's, Coinbase, Tesla and Astera Labs
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – November 27, 2024 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Nvidia’s (NVDA - Free Report) , Coinbase (COIN - Free Report) , Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) and Astera Labs (ALAB - Free Report) .
Will There Be a Santa Claus Rally in 2024?
Stocks Climb the Wall of Worry in 2024
Year-to-date, Wall Street is enjoying one of its best presidential election years ever, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 26% in 2024. Per usual, the move seems more obvious than in hindsight than it was in real-time. For example, multiple geopolitical conflicts are occurring in Europe and the Middle East, interest rates remain at elevated levels, and many investors are concerned about valuations and wonder how much fuel the artificial intelligence buildout has left in the tank. That said, there are several reasons to remain bullish equities into year-end, including:
Presidential Election Year Seasonality
Historical seasonality trends have been a fantastic guide for investors. Though trading volumes tend to dip into the Thanksgiving holiday, stocks historically tend to grind higher into the end of November. Meanwhile, Ryan Detrick of Carson Research points out that, “No month is more likely to be higher than December in an election year.” Using data going back to 1950, the month of December is higher 83% of the time during presidential election years.
Broad Market Participation
A common bearish argument amongst Wall Street investors has been that there is a lack of broad participation, or breadth, in the market. However, the slim participation argument has been flipped on its head recently. For example, the Russell 2000 Index ETF is up more than 12% in November and is finally approaching its all-time highs from 2021.
AI Spending Isn’t Slowing Down
Business spending on AI surged 500% this year to $13.8 billion, according to Menlo Ventures. Meanwhile, Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest that the future may even be brighter. Analysts anticipate that Nvidia’s earnings growth will balloon to 123.08% year-over-year.
Year-End Window Dressing
Institutional investors often look to get winning stocks “on their books” and “window dress” their portfolios to make them look better when they send out year-end statements to clients. As a result, institutional investors may drive up 2024 winners like Coinbase, Tesla and Astera Labs.
Nasdaq Breakout
TheNasdaq 100 ETF is on the verge of breaking out of a three-month base structure.
Bottom Line
Despite the stellar performance thus far in U.S. equities, several data points suggest that its not too late to get long stocks for an end of year rally.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.0 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +44.9%, +48.4% and +55.2% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
See Stocks Free >>
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Zacks Investment Research
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.