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Why Is Kraft Heinz (KHC) Down 4.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Kraft Heinz (KHC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Kraft Heinz due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Kraft Heinz Q3 Earnings Top, Organic Sales Hurt by Soft Volumes

The Kraft Heinz Company posted third-quarter 2024 results, wherein the bottom line increased year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while the top line came in soft. Sales continued to be pressurized by volatile consumer behavior stemming from economic uncertainty. Management now expects its organic sales, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS growth to be at the lower end of its previously guided range. Sales performance in the company’s key growth areas — Global Away From Home and Emerging Markets — aligned with expectations. Kraft Heinz anticipates ongoing momentum within these pillars. However, management stated that recovery in the U.S. Retail division may be more gradual as certain categories continue to face pressure. Nonetheless, Kraft Heinz remains committed to strategic investments in marketing, research and development and technology, aiming to deliver value to consumers and fuel top-line growth.

KHC’s Quarterly Performance: Key Insights

Kraft Heinz posted adjusted earnings of 75 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 74 cents. Quarterly earnings rose 4.2% year over year, mainly due to increased adjusted operating income, reduced shares outstanding and lower taxes on adjusted earnings.

The company generated net sales of $6,383 million, down 2.8% year over year. Net sales included an unfavorable currency impact of 0.4 percentage points and an adverse impact of 0.2 percentage points from divestitures. Net sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6,407 million. Organic net sales fell 2.2% year over year.

Pricing inched up 1.2 percentage points year over year. The upside was driven by increases in the North America and Emerging Markets segments, although this was somewhat countered by lower prices in International Developed Markets. The favorable pricing was a result of adjustments in certain categories to address higher input costs. The volume/mix dropped 3.4 percentage points from the prior year’s levels, with declines in North America and International Developed Markets, partially balanced by growth in Emerging Markets. The negative impact on the volume/mix was due to changing consumer behavior stemming from economic uncertainty.

The adjusted gross profit of $2,189 million decreased from the $2,231 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The adjusted gross margin expanded 30 bps to 34.3%. We had expected an adjusted gross margin expansion of 50 bps to 34.5%.

Adjusted operating income moved up 1.4% to $1,330 million. The upside can be attributed to elevated pricing, gains from efficiency efforts and reduced variable compensation expenses. These gains outweighed the effects of adverse volume/mix, higher manufacturing costs and the adverse impacts of foreign currency fluctuations.

Decoding KHC’s Segment-Wise Results

North America: Net sales of $4,826 million declined 3.4% year over year. Organic sales fell 3.2%. During the quarter, pricing moved up 1.2 percentage points, but the volume/mix fell 4.4 percentage points.

International Developed Markets: Net sales of $882 million were down 0.2% year over year. Organic sales declined by 1.8%, with pricing down 1 percentage point and volume/mix dipping 0.8 percentage points.

Emerging Markets: Net sales of $675 million were down 2.4% year over year. Organic sales rose 4.9%, with pricing up 3.8 percentage points and volume/mix increase of 1.1 percentage points.

Kraft Heinz: Other Aspects

Kraft Heinz ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1,284 million, long-term debt of $19,383 million and total shareholders’ equity of $48,328 million. Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.8 billion for the year-to-date period, and free cash flow amounted to $2 billion. During the year-to-date period, Kraft Heinz paid cash dividends worth $1.5 billion and made share buybacks worth $538 million. As of Sept. 28, 2024, the company had shares worth $2.4 billion remaining under its buyback plan.

In a separate press release, Kraft Heinz declared a quarterly dividend of 40 cents per share, payable on Dec. 27, 2024, to shareholders of record as of Nov. 29.

What to Expect From KHC in 2024?

For 2024, organic net sales are now expected to be at the lower end of the earlier guidance range of 2% to flat year over year. The adjusted operating income growth is now projected to be at the lower end of the previously guided range of 1-3%. This forecast expects adjusted gross margin expansion to be at the lower end of the earlier forecasted 75-125 bps growth range. The adjusted EPS for 2024 is now envisioned in the lower end of the previously projected range of 1-3% growth to $3.01-$3.07.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Kraft Heinz has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Kraft Heinz has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Kraft Heinz belongs to the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry. Another stock from the same industry, Sysco (SYY - Free Report) , has gained 2.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.

Sysco reported revenues of $20.48 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.4%. EPS of $1.09 for the same period compares with $1.07 a year ago.

Sysco is expected to post earnings of $0.93 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1%.

Sysco has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.


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