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Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Up 24.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT - Free Report) . Shares have added about 24.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Allegiant Incurs Loss in Q3
Allegiant reported a third-quarter 2024 loss of $2.02 per share (excluding three cents from non-recurring items), which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.85. The company reported earnings of 9 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Operating revenues of $562.2 million marginally surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $561.2 million. However, the top line fell by 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.
Passenger revenues, which accounted for the bulk (87%) of the top line, fell 5.3% on a year-over-year basis. Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) for scheduled services dropped 1.1% year over year in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) grew 1.1% from the year-ago number. The load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) decreased to 85.6% from 87.5% in the reported quarter, as traffic did not outperform capacity.
Operating costs per available seat miles, excluding fuel, jumped 8.1% year over year to 8.65 cents. The average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) decreased 6.6% to $2.85. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat miles fell to 12.21 cents from 12.78 cents a year ago.
ALGT’s Liquidity
As of Sept. 30, 2024, Allegiant’s total unrestricted cash and investments were $804.6 million compared with $870.7 million at the fourth-quarter end. Long-term debt and finance lease obligations (net of current maturities and related costs) totaled $1.77 billion compared with $1.82 billion at the prior-quarter end.
Allegiant’s Guidance for Q4 & 2024
For the fourth quarter of 2024, ASM (for scheduled service) is expected to increase 1.5% on a year-over-year basis. Total system ASM is projected to gain 1.5% on a year-over-year basis.
The operating margin is expected between 6% and 8%. EPS (airline) is anticipated in the $0.50-$1.50 range. Fourth-quarter consolidated earnings per share, excluding special items, are expected to either break even or increase up to 1 per share. The fuel cost per gallon is suggested to be $2.50.
For 2024, ASM (for scheduled service) is now expected to increase 0.5% on a year-over-year basis. Total system ASM is now projected to rise 0.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Interest expenses are now forecasted to be in the range of $150-$160 million (the prior view was in the $130-$140 million band).
Under airline capex, aircraft, engines, induction costs and pre-delivery deposits are now expected in the $105-$125 million band (the prior view was in the $180-$200 million range). Capitalized deferred heavy maintenance is still envisioned between $80 million and $90 million. Other airline capital expenditures are expected between $105 and $115 million (the prior view was in the $120-$130 million range).
The company aims to expand its fleet size to 122 at the end of 2024 (the previous expectation was 124).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -19.53% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Allegiant Travel has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Allegiant Travel is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 5.8%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.
Southwest reported revenues of $6.87 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.3%. EPS of $0.15 for the same period compares with $0.38 a year ago.
Southwest is expected to post earnings of $0.39 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +5%.
Southwest has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Up 24.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT - Free Report) . Shares have added about 24.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Allegiant Incurs Loss in Q3
Allegiant reported a third-quarter 2024 loss of $2.02 per share (excluding three cents from non-recurring items), which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.85. The company reported earnings of 9 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Operating revenues of $562.2 million marginally surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $561.2 million. However, the top line fell by 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.
Passenger revenues, which accounted for the bulk (87%) of the top line, fell 5.3% on a year-over-year basis. Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) for scheduled services dropped 1.1% year over year in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) grew 1.1% from the year-ago number. The load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) decreased to 85.6% from 87.5% in the reported quarter, as traffic did not outperform capacity.
Operating costs per available seat miles, excluding fuel, jumped 8.1% year over year to 8.65 cents. The average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) decreased 6.6% to $2.85. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat miles fell to 12.21 cents from 12.78 cents a year ago.
ALGT’s Liquidity
As of Sept. 30, 2024, Allegiant’s total unrestricted cash and investments were $804.6 million compared with $870.7 million at the fourth-quarter end. Long-term debt and finance lease obligations (net of current maturities and related costs) totaled $1.77 billion compared with $1.82 billion at the prior-quarter end.
Allegiant’s Guidance for Q4 & 2024
For the fourth quarter of 2024, ASM (for scheduled service) is expected to increase 1.5% on a year-over-year basis. Total system ASM is projected to gain 1.5% on a year-over-year basis.
The operating margin is expected between 6% and 8%. EPS (airline) is anticipated in the $0.50-$1.50 range. Fourth-quarter consolidated earnings per share, excluding special items, are expected to either break even or increase up to 1 per share. The fuel cost per gallon is suggested to be $2.50.
For 2024, ASM (for scheduled service) is now expected to increase 0.5% on a year-over-year basis. Total system ASM is now projected to rise 0.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Interest expenses are now forecasted to be in the range of $150-$160 million (the prior view was in the $130-$140 million band).
Under airline capex, aircraft, engines, induction costs and pre-delivery deposits are now expected in the $105-$125 million band (the prior view was in the $180-$200 million range). Capitalized deferred heavy maintenance is still envisioned between $80 million and $90 million. Other airline capital expenditures are expected between $105 and $115 million (the prior view was in the $120-$130 million range).
The company aims to expand its fleet size to 122 at the end of 2024 (the previous expectation was 124).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -19.53% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Allegiant Travel has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Allegiant Travel is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 5.8%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.
Southwest reported revenues of $6.87 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.3%. EPS of $0.15 for the same period compares with $0.38 a year ago.
Southwest is expected to post earnings of $0.39 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +5%.
Southwest has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.