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Century (CENX) Up 13.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Century Aluminum (CENX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 13.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Century due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Century Aluminum's Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss

Century Aluminum logged earnings of 46 cents per share for the third quarter of 2024, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 32 cents. The figure compares favorably with the prior-year quarter’s loss of 45 cents and a loss of 3 cents in the previous quarter.

The sequential increase in earnings in the third quarter was due to the recognition of full-year 2023 and year-to-date 2024 Inflation Reduction Act Advanced Manufacturing credits, as well as greater LME aluminum price realization, which was somewhat offset by higher power prices.

Revenues and Shipments

The company reported net sales of $539.1 million, down 1.1% year over year. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $587.1 million.

Primary aluminum shipments were 168,775 tons, down around 1.9% year over year.

Financials

At the end of the quarter, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $32.6 million, down 53.6% year over year.

Net cash used by operating activities was $16.8 million for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2024.

Outlook

The company forecasts fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the $70 million to $80 million range, driven by lower LME and regional premium prices offset by reduced power costs.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 318.18% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Century has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. It comes with little surprise Century has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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