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LLY's Zepbound Outshines NVO's Wegovy in Head-to-Head Obesity Study

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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) announced that its popular obesity drug, Zepbound (tirzepatide) demonstrated more weight loss than rival Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) Wegovy in a first-ever head-to-head obesity study, SURMOUNT-5. Zepbound is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, while Wegovy is a mono GLP-1 receptor agonist.

In the phase IIIb 72-week study, Zepbound led to an average weight loss of 20.2% of body weight in adults with obesity or overweight, compared to 13.7% for Wegovy, which represents a 47% greater relative weight loss for Zepbound users. Participants given Zepbound lost an average of 50.3 lbs (22.8 kg) compared to 33.1 lbs (15.0 kg) for those taking Wegovy. Additionally, in a key secondary endpoint, 31.6% of those taking Zepbound achieved a weight loss of at least 25% of their body weight, compared to 16.1% for Wegovy users.

In the study, Zepbound showed superior results across the primary endpoint and all five key secondary endpoints, and its safety profile was consistent with previous studies. Detailed data from the study will be presented at a future medical meeting.

Lilly’s shares rose 2% on Wednesday in response to the positive data.

Lilly’s stock has risen 42.4% so far this year compared with an increase of 9.4% for the industry.

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Zepbound & Mounjaro Key Drivers of LLY’s Top Line

Lilly markets tirzepatide as Zepbound for obesity and as Mounjaro for type II diabetes.

Despite a short time on the market, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly in 2024, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound generated sales of $11.0 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for around 45% of the company’s total revenues.

However, quarter-over-quarter growth of Zepbound and Mounjaro in 2024 has been impacted by supply and channel dynamics. Mounjaro and Zepbound’s sales were hurt due to inventory issues in the third quarter. However, the latest Zepbound data bodes well for Lilly and could help establish the drug as the new standard for obesity medications.

Tirzepatide is also being developed for other indications like obstructive sleep apnea, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, cardiovascular risks and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis. Approval for these expanded indications can further boost sales. Wegovy, however, has an edge over Zepbound in this regard, as it is already approved to reduce cardiovascular risks.

Competition Heating Up in Obesity Space

The obesity market is heating up and is expected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Lilly and Novo are presently dominating the market. NVO’s Wegovy includes an ingredient called semaglutide. Semaglutide is also approved as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes. Novo Nordisk also faces periodic supply constraints and drug shortages of its semaglutide products.

Several companies like Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) are making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.

Last month, Amgen announced 52-week top-line data from a phase II study on MariTide, its GLP-1 therapy for obesity. The data showed that MariTide led to approximately 20% average weight loss over 52 weeks without reaching a weight loss plateau.

AMGN and VKTX’s products can pose strong competition to Mounjaro/Zepbound and Ozempic/Wegovy in the future.

Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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