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5 Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Buy Ahead of Fed FOMC Meeting
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The Fed will conduct its last FOMC meeting for 2024 from Dec 17-18. Market participants are highly hopeful of another round of reduction in the benchmark lending rate. The Fed reduced the market interest rate by 75 basis points in September and November to a range of 4.5-4.75%.
The CME FedWatch interest rate derivative tool currently shows an 86% probability that the central bank will cut the Fed fund rate by another 25 basis points in December. This probability was around 66% at the beginning of last week. If this materializes, total reduction in the Fed fund rate will be 1% in 2024.
A lower market interest rate will be beneficial to growth sectors like technology, consumer discretionary and cryptocurrencies. At this stage, investment in consumer discretionary stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank should be fruitful.
The consumer discretionary sector is generally recognized as being growth-oriented. Growth sectors are highly sensitive to the movement of the market interest rate and are inversely related. Companies in this space need a cheap source of credit for businesses. Investors derive returns from these stocks’ investments over a period of time.
A low market interest rate regime will reduce the discount rate thereby increasing the net present value of investment in these stocks. On the other hand, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain solid. Buoyed by aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY), one of the 11 broad sectors of Wall Street’s benchmark — the S&P 500 Index — provided highest returns of 27.6% in the past three months.
Strong Fundamentals of the U.S. Economy
The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain rock solid. The U.S. GDP grew at 1.6%, 3% and 2.8%, respectively, in first three quarters of 2024. On Dec 5, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow projected the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter at 3.3%. This clearly indicates no signs of softness.
The Department of Labor reported that the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November, beating the consensus estimate of 200,000. The metric for October was revised upward to 36,000 from 12,000 reported earlier.
The unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in November from 4.1% in October. The average hourly wage rate increased 0.4% in November, in line with the prior month but higher than the consensus mark of 0.3%. Year over year, the average hourly wage rate increased 4% in November, higher-than-the consensus mark of 3.9%.
Buy 5 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Ahead of Fed FOMC
These stocks have strong revenue and earnings growth rate for 2025 and have seen positive earnings estimate revisions over the last 30 days. Each of our picks carries either a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The chart below shows the rice performance of our five picks year to date.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Carnival Corporation & plc
Zacks Rank #1 Carnival is benefiting from sustained demand strength, increased booking volumes at significantly higher prices and the base loading strategy. During the third-quarter fiscal 2024, CCL reported a solid booked position for the remainder of the year, with pricing and occupancy considerably higher than the 2023 levels.
Also, the focus on marketing campaign efforts bodes well. Going forward, CCL emphasized strategic investments in fleet modernization to drive growth. Owing to strong demand and cost-saving opportunities, CCL raised its full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Carnival has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 3.5% and 28.1%, respectively, for the current year (ending November 2025). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 2.4% in the last seven days.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Zacks Rank #2 Royal Caribbean Cruises posted impressive third-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis. RCL has been benefiting from strong cruising demand from new and loyal guests and robust booking trends.
Also, strength in consumer spending onboard and pre-cruise purchases bodes well. RCL emphasized investing in a modern digital travel platform to streamline the vacation booking process for customers and expand wallet share. Also, RCL emphasized new innovative ships and onboard experiences to boost its offering and deliver superior yields and margins.
Royal Caribbean Cruises has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 9.4% and 23.8%, respectively, for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 1.1% in the last seven days.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Zacks Rank #2 Norwegian Cruise Line reported impressive third-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and the bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis. The upside was driven by strong consumer demand and a solid booking environment.
Also, NCLH reported a rise in onboard spending, boosted by shore excursions and improved communication offerings via Starlink high-speed Internet. NCLH intends to focus on strategic marketing efforts to drive demand and high-value bookings. Focus on fleet expansion efforts and strategic partnerships bodes well for NCLH.
Norwegian Cruise Line has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 8.4% and 25.4%, respectively, for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 4.1% in the last seven days.
Flutter Entertainment plc
Zacks Rank #1 Flutter Entertainment is an online sports betting and iGaming operator. FLUT’s divisions include the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland, Australia and International. The U.S. division offers sports betting, casino, DFS and horse racing wagering products.
For The UKI, FLUT offers sports betting, iGaming products and other products through its Sky Betting & Gaming, Paddy Power, Betfair and tombola brands. In Australia, FLUT offers online sports betting products through its Sportsbet brand. FLUT’s international division includes PokerStars, Betfair International, Adjarabet and Junglee Games.
Flutter Entertainment has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 12.6% and 43.7%, respectively, for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 4.2% in the last 30 days.
Ralph Lauren Corp.
Zacks Rank #2 Ralph Lauren has benefited from strong brand equity, diversified growth strategy and its Next Great Chapter: Accelerate plan. RL has consistently surpassed expectations, with revenues and earnings beating consensus estimates for 17 consecutive quarters.
In second-quarter fiscal 2025, RL’s revenue growth was fueled by strong direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel performance, showcasing its ability to connect directly with consumers. For fiscal 2025, RL anticipates year-over-year revenue growth of 3-4%.
Ralph Lauren has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 3.5% and 13.6%, respectively, for the current year (ending March 2025). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 3.2% in the last 30 days.
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5 Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Buy Ahead of Fed FOMC Meeting
The Fed will conduct its last FOMC meeting for 2024 from Dec 17-18. Market participants are highly hopeful of another round of reduction in the benchmark lending rate. The Fed reduced the market interest rate by 75 basis points in September and November to a range of 4.5-4.75%.
The CME FedWatch interest rate derivative tool currently shows an 86% probability that the central bank will cut the Fed fund rate by another 25 basis points in December. This probability was around 66% at the beginning of last week. If this materializes, total reduction in the Fed fund rate will be 1% in 2024.
A lower market interest rate will be beneficial to growth sectors like technology, consumer discretionary and cryptocurrencies. At this stage, investment in consumer discretionary stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank should be fruitful.
Five such stocks are: Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL - Free Report) , Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL - Free Report) , Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH - Free Report) , Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT - Free Report) and Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL - Free Report) .
Why Consumer Discretionary Stocks?
The consumer discretionary sector is generally recognized as being growth-oriented. Growth sectors are highly sensitive to the movement of the market interest rate and are inversely related. Companies in this space need a cheap source of credit for businesses. Investors derive returns from these stocks’ investments over a period of time.
A low market interest rate regime will reduce the discount rate thereby increasing the net present value of investment in these stocks. On the other hand, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain solid.
Buoyed by aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY), one of the 11 broad sectors of Wall Street’s benchmark — the S&P 500 Index — provided highest returns of 27.6% in the past three months.
Strong Fundamentals of the U.S. Economy
The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain rock solid. The U.S. GDP grew at 1.6%, 3% and 2.8%, respectively, in first three quarters of 2024. On Dec 5, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow projected the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter at 3.3%. This clearly indicates no signs of softness.
The Department of Labor reported that the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November, beating the consensus estimate of 200,000. The metric for October was revised upward to 36,000 from 12,000 reported earlier.
The unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in November from 4.1% in October. The average hourly wage rate increased 0.4% in November, in line with the prior month but higher than the consensus mark of 0.3%. Year over year, the average hourly wage rate increased 4% in November, higher-than-the consensus mark of 3.9%.
Buy 5 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Ahead of Fed FOMC
These stocks have strong revenue and earnings growth rate for 2025 and have seen positive earnings estimate revisions over the last 30 days. Each of our picks carries either a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The chart below shows the rice performance of our five picks year to date.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Carnival Corporation & plc
Zacks Rank #1 Carnival is benefiting from sustained demand strength, increased booking volumes at significantly higher prices and the base loading strategy. During the third-quarter fiscal 2024, CCL reported a solid booked position for the remainder of the year, with pricing and occupancy considerably higher than the 2023 levels.
Also, the focus on marketing campaign efforts bodes well. Going forward, CCL emphasized strategic investments in fleet modernization to drive growth. Owing to strong demand and cost-saving opportunities, CCL raised its full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Carnival has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 3.5% and 28.1%, respectively, for the current year (ending November 2025). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 2.4% in the last seven days.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Zacks Rank #2 Royal Caribbean Cruises posted impressive third-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis. RCL has been benefiting from strong cruising demand from new and loyal guests and robust booking trends.
Also, strength in consumer spending onboard and pre-cruise purchases bodes well. RCL emphasized investing in a modern digital travel platform to streamline the vacation booking process for customers and expand wallet share. Also, RCL emphasized new innovative ships and onboard experiences to boost its offering and deliver superior yields and margins.
Royal Caribbean Cruises has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 9.4% and 23.8%, respectively, for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 1.1% in the last seven days.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Zacks Rank #2 Norwegian Cruise Line reported impressive third-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and the bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis. The upside was driven by strong consumer demand and a solid booking environment.
Also, NCLH reported a rise in onboard spending, boosted by shore excursions and improved communication offerings via Starlink high-speed Internet. NCLH intends to focus on strategic marketing efforts to drive demand and high-value bookings. Focus on fleet expansion efforts and strategic partnerships bodes well for NCLH.
Norwegian Cruise Line has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 8.4% and 25.4%, respectively, for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 4.1% in the last seven days.
Flutter Entertainment plc
Zacks Rank #1 Flutter Entertainment is an online sports betting and iGaming operator. FLUT’s divisions include the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland, Australia and International. The U.S. division offers sports betting, casino, DFS and horse racing wagering products.
For The UKI, FLUT offers sports betting, iGaming products and other products through its Sky Betting & Gaming, Paddy Power, Betfair and tombola brands. In Australia, FLUT offers online sports betting products through its Sportsbet brand. FLUT’s international division includes PokerStars, Betfair International, Adjarabet and Junglee Games.
Flutter Entertainment has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 12.6% and 43.7%, respectively, for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 4.2% in the last 30 days.
Ralph Lauren Corp.
Zacks Rank #2 Ralph Lauren has benefited from strong brand equity, diversified growth strategy and its Next Great Chapter: Accelerate plan. RL has consistently surpassed expectations, with revenues and earnings beating consensus estimates for 17 consecutive quarters.
In second-quarter fiscal 2025, RL’s revenue growth was fueled by strong direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel performance, showcasing its ability to connect directly with consumers. For fiscal 2025, RL anticipates year-over-year revenue growth of 3-4%.
Ralph Lauren has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 3.5% and 13.6%, respectively, for the current year (ending March 2025). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 3.2% in the last 30 days.