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Finance Stocks' Earnings to Watch Ahead: AER, AINV & More

AER AINV NMFC TCPC

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The Q3 earnings season for the finance sector is in its final leg, with most of its companies having released results. About 88.6% of the S&P 500 companies in the sector have reported results so far. Total earnings for these companies increased 12.7% year over year on a 6.7% improvement in revenues. Notably, 73% companies have surpassed bottom-line expectations and 75.3% beat on the top line.

Performance of these companies reflects an overall improvement over the prior-year quarter. While the industry backdrop hasn’t improved much with the persistent low interest rate environment and global growth concerns amid the Brexit vote, the rebound in oil prices and certain positive domestic economic factors remained the brighter spots. These, in turn, alleviated the pressure on the finance industry to some extent.

Per the latest Zacks Earnings Preview report, for third-quarter 2016, overall earnings of the S&P 500 stocks in the Finance sector are expected to be up 11.8% year over year. This compares with the 5.2% decline in earnings in the previous quarter. Revenues are expected to increase 2.2% compard with the 15% decrease last quarter.

Our quantitative model offers some insights into stocks that are about to report their earnings. Per the model, in order to be confident of an earnings beat, a stock needs to have the right combination of the two key criteria, a favorable Zacks Rank – Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) – and a positive Earnings ESP.

Please check our Earnings ESP Filter that enables you to find stocks that are expected to come out with earnings surprises.

Earnings ESP is our proprietary methodology for identifying stocks that have high chances of surprising in their upcoming earnings announcement. It shows the percentage of difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Our research show that for stocks with this combination, the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%.

Let’s see what’s in store for the following companies that are scheduled to report July-Sep quarter results on Nov 8.

AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER - Free Report) : We expect the company to beat earnings expectations this time. The combination of a Zacks Rank #3 and ESP of +2.82% makes us confident of an earnings beat. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter is pegged at $1.42. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Notably, estimates have been going up lately, ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings release. The company reported an average positive earnings surprise of 3.6% over the trailing four quarters.

AERCAP HLDGS NV Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

AERCAP HLDGS NV Price and EPS Surprise | AERCAP HLDGS NV Quote

Apollo Investment Corporation (AINV - Free Report) : The Zacks Consensus Estimate of 17 cents for the company reflects a year-over-year plunge of 20.8%. While estimates remained unchanged ahead of the company’s release of second-quarter results, we are not confident of an earnings beat as the company has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Notably, the company reported an average negative earnings surprise of 2.7% over the trailing four quarters.

APOLLO INV CP Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

APOLLO INV CP Price and EPS Surprise | APOLLO INV CP Quote

New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC - Free Report) : Estimates has been stable ahead of the company’s third-quarter 2016 earnings release. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents for the company reflects a year-over-year decrease of 2.1%.

Notably, the company has a Zacks Rank #3, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, making it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat this quarter. Though a Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of our model, we also need a positive Earnings ESP to be sure of an earnings beat.

The company reported an average negative earnings surprise of 1.5% over the trailing four quarters.

NEW MOUNTN FIN Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

NEW MOUNTN FIN Price and EPS Surprise | NEW MOUNTN FIN Quote

TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC - Free Report) : The Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents reflects a year-over-year decline of 5.6%. Also, we are not confident of an earnings beat as the company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Notably, estimates have been stable lately, prior to the company’s third-quarter 2016 earnings release. The company reported average positive earnings surprise of 14.5% over the trailing four quarters.

TCP CAPITAL CP Price and EPS Surprise

 

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