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The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkable bull market this year, thanks to the AI boom, Fed rate cuts, and Trump trade. The index is up 26.7% so far this year (as of Dec. 12, 2024). In this backdrop, most Wall Street analysts are projecting a decent gain for the S&P 500 in 2025, but bearish views are not totally absent.
Oppenheimer has the most bullish forecast on Wall Street with the expectation that the S&P 500 will reach 7,100 in 2025, thanks in part to a resilient economy. Deutsche Bank has a 2025 high-end price target of 7,000 for the S&P 500 (read: Analysts Turn More Bullish on S&P 500 for 2025: ETFs to Bet On).
However, Barry Bannister, Stifel’s chief investment strategist, recently forecast the stock market would end 2025 below its current levels, hurt by persistent inflation and economic slowdown. Bannister predicts the S&P 500 will close in the mid-5,000s by the end of 2025, a decline from its recent levels near 6,070, just shy of an all-time high, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Stifel’s Bannister expects the Fed to hold rates higher amidst sticky inflation. Although he expects two 25-basis-point rate cuts in early 2025, he anticipates a prolonged pause afterward due to inflationary pressure and fiscal uncertainties. Note that President-elect Trump’s proposed protectionist policies could result in a tariff war and raise inflation in 2025.
Diverging Opinions Among Strategists
Of the 17 strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance, Bannister is the only one forecasting a decline in the S&P 500 by year-end 2025. However, others anticipate a market pullback in the second half of the year. Tom Lee of Fundstrat predicts the S&P 500 will rally to 7,000 mid-year before retreating to 6,600, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Strong U.S. economic growth is viewed as a driver for a potential market rally in 2025, with consensus expecting an annualized growth rate of 2.1%. However, Bannister predicts GDP will fall to 1.5% in the second half of 2025 due to pressures on consumption growth, weakening fixed investment, and reduced net exports.
How to Play Stocks in 2025 With the ETF Approach?
Against the above-said scenario, investors can play the below-mentioned exchange-traded fund (ETF) strategies in 2025.
Broadening of the Market Rally
Optimistic economic outlook and moderately-dovish Fed should inspire investors to broaden their focus beyond the massive growth and technology stocks. Unlike the previous year's trend where investors clung to the 'Magnificent Seven' mega-caps for innovations and AI mania, the year 2025 could show a shift. Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP - Free Report) is a good pick in this context.
Keep Focus on Small-Cap Stocks
Currently, the U.S. economy remains strong, with inflation in line with estimates and earnings continuing to grow. The U.S. dollar remains strong. A strong dollar provides an edge to domestic-focused companies as small caps do not have much exposure to the international market. Plus, Trump’s “America First” agenda should also continue to favor small-cap stocks. Small-cap ETF (IWM - Free Report) is a good pick here.
Tap Covered Call ETFs to Earn Higher Income
A covered call strategy is an investing technique that saves one from market selloffs to a large extent. Historically, covered call strategies have outperformed their underlying securities in bear, range-bound, and moderate bull markets but lag during strong bull rallies when securities frequently and sharply exceed their strike prices.
Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD - Free Report) follows the CBOE NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite V2 Index measures the total return of a portfolio consisting of common stocks of the 100 companies included on the NASDAQ-100 Index and call options systematically written on those securities through a buy-write or covered call strategy. The fund charges 61 bps in fees and yields 10.56% annually.
Semiconductors Should be in Fine Fettle
The demand for semiconductor should remain strong thanks to the AI movement and the bitcoin rally. The world's largest cryptocurrency topped $100,000, driven by optimism surrounding Donald Trump's potential crypto-friendly policies and the Fed’s acknowledgement of its status similar to digital gold.
Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign and vowed to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet.” Bitcoin mining drives a huge demand for semiconductors, as high-performance chips are essential for processing complex cryptographic algorithms efficiently. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH - Free Report) has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Financial Stocks to Gain?
Executives from the nation’s largest banks expressed optimism lately about the prospects for 2025, citing favorable economic conditions and anticipated rate cuts by the Fed. The upbeat sentiment comes as large U.S. banks enjoyed a robust 2024, thanks to economic resilience amid steepening of the yield curve and a recovery in investment banking and trading operations.
Bank executives anticipate that the incoming Republican administration will relax regulations, including easing rules on corporate mergers that generate significant profits for Wall Street. The hope is that this leniency will boost lending and dealmaking activity. Overall, Zacks Rank #1 ETF Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF - Free Report) should see a gain.
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Can S&P 500 Fall in 2025? ETFs to Rescue You
The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkable bull market this year, thanks to the AI boom, Fed rate cuts, and Trump trade. The index is up 26.7% so far this year (as of Dec. 12, 2024). In this backdrop, most Wall Street analysts are projecting a decent gain for the S&P 500 in 2025, but bearish views are not totally absent.
Oppenheimer has the most bullish forecast on Wall Street with the expectation that the S&P 500 will reach 7,100 in 2025, thanks in part to a resilient economy. Deutsche Bank has a 2025 high-end price target of 7,000 for the S&P 500 (read: Analysts Turn More Bullish on S&P 500 for 2025: ETFs to Bet On).
However, Barry Bannister, Stifel’s chief investment strategist, recently forecast the stock market would end 2025 below its current levels, hurt by persistent inflation and economic slowdown. Bannister predicts the S&P 500 will close in the mid-5,000s by the end of 2025, a decline from its recent levels near 6,070, just shy of an all-time high, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Before this, BMO Capital and Morgan Stanley indicated that after two years of annual gains topping 20% for the S&P 500, a moderate performance is expected in 2025 (read: How to Play Wall Street Stocks in 2025? ETF Strategies in Focus).
Inflation and Fed Policy
Stifel’s Bannister expects the Fed to hold rates higher amidst sticky inflation. Although he expects two 25-basis-point rate cuts in early 2025, he anticipates a prolonged pause afterward due to inflationary pressure and fiscal uncertainties. Note that President-elect Trump’s proposed protectionist policies could result in a tariff war and raise inflation in 2025.
Diverging Opinions Among Strategists
Of the 17 strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance, Bannister is the only one forecasting a decline in the S&P 500 by year-end 2025. However, others anticipate a market pullback in the second half of the year. Tom Lee of Fundstrat predicts the S&P 500 will rally to 7,000 mid-year before retreating to 6,600, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Strong U.S. economic growth is viewed as a driver for a potential market rally in 2025, with consensus expecting an annualized growth rate of 2.1%. However, Bannister predicts GDP will fall to 1.5% in the second half of 2025 due to pressures on consumption growth, weakening fixed investment, and reduced net exports.
How to Play Stocks in 2025 With the ETF Approach?
Against the above-said scenario, investors can play the below-mentioned exchange-traded fund (ETF) strategies in 2025.
Broadening of the Market Rally
Optimistic economic outlook and moderately-dovish Fed should inspire investors to broaden their focus beyond the massive growth and technology stocks. Unlike the previous year's trend where investors clung to the 'Magnificent Seven' mega-caps for innovations and AI mania, the year 2025 could show a shift. Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP - Free Report) is a good pick in this context.
Keep Focus on Small-Cap Stocks
Currently, the U.S. economy remains strong, with inflation in line with estimates and earnings continuing to grow. The U.S. dollar remains strong. A strong dollar provides an edge to domestic-focused companies as small caps do not have much exposure to the international market. Plus, Trump’s “America First” agenda should also continue to favor small-cap stocks. Small-cap ETF (IWM - Free Report) is a good pick here.
Tap Covered Call ETFs to Earn Higher Income
A covered call strategy is an investing technique that saves one from market selloffs to a large extent. Historically, covered call strategies have outperformed their underlying securities in bear, range-bound, and moderate bull markets but lag during strong bull rallies when securities frequently and sharply exceed their strike prices.
Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD - Free Report) follows the CBOE NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite V2 Index measures the total return of a portfolio consisting of common stocks of the 100 companies included on the NASDAQ-100 Index and call options systematically written on those securities through a buy-write or covered call strategy. The fund charges 61 bps in fees and yields 10.56% annually.
Semiconductors Should be in Fine Fettle
The demand for semiconductor should remain strong thanks to the AI movement and the bitcoin rally. The world's largest cryptocurrency topped $100,000, driven by optimism surrounding Donald Trump's potential crypto-friendly policies and the Fed’s acknowledgement of its status similar to digital gold.
Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign and vowed to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet.” Bitcoin mining drives a huge demand for semiconductors, as high-performance chips are essential for processing complex cryptographic algorithms efficiently. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH - Free Report) has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Financial Stocks to Gain?
Executives from the nation’s largest banks expressed optimism lately about the prospects for 2025, citing favorable economic conditions and anticipated rate cuts by the Fed. The upbeat sentiment comes as large U.S. banks enjoyed a robust 2024, thanks to economic resilience amid steepening of the yield curve and a recovery in investment banking and trading operations.
Bank executives anticipate that the incoming Republican administration will relax regulations, including easing rules on corporate mergers that generate significant profits for Wall Street. The hope is that this leniency will boost lending and dealmaking activity. Overall, Zacks Rank #1 ETF Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF - Free Report) should see a gain.