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PGR's November Earnings Improve: Should You Buy or Hold the Stock?
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The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) reported solid November 2024 results, wherein both the top and the bottom lines increased year over year. Net premiums written improved 18%, driven by the strong performance of operating businesses.
Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — improved 550 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 85.6.
PGR is one of the country’s largest auto insurance groups, the largest seller of motorcycle and boat policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written. A solid market presence, a convincing portfolio of products and services, and underwriting and operational expertise should help this insurer deliver steady profitability.
A Sneak Peek Into Monthly Results
November earnings per share of $1.71 per increased 48% year over year. Operating revenues of $6.9 billion improved 19.8% year over year. Net premiums earned increased 19%.
Policies in force were solid in the Personal Auto segment, up 21% year over year to 23.6 million. Special Lines improved 9% to 6.5 million. In the Personal Auto segment, Direct Auto increased 25% year over year to 13.9 million, while Agency Auto increased 17% to 9.7 million. Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment rose 4% year over year to 1.1 million. The Property business had 3.5 million policies in force, up 14%.
Total expenses increased 12% year over year to $5.3 billion, attributable to a 3% higher loss and loss adjustment expenses, a 15.8% increase in policy acquisition costs and an 81.1% jump in other underwriting expenses.
Investment Thesis
Progressive’s growth strategy includes prioritizing auto bundles, lowering exposure to risky properties and increasing segmentation through the rollout of new products. The insurer’s efforts to increase the share of Progressive auto and home bundled households, investments in mobile applications and the rollout of new products in a higher number of states should fuel growth.
A compelling product portfolio, leadership position, healthy policies in force, better pricing and a solid retention ratio should continue to fuel premium growth. Policy life expectancy (PLE), a measure of customer retention, has improved in the last few years across all business lines. PLE should continue to improve as the auto insurer offers consumers a distinctive new auto insurance option along with competitive pricing.
Over a decade, PGR’s combined ratio has averaged less than 93%, which compares favorably with the industry average combined ratio of more than 100%. Prudent underwriting coupled with favorable reserve development should help the company maintain the momentum. Also, its reinsurance program shields the balance sheet from the impact of catastrophe events and active weather years.
PGR strategically maintains an investment portfolio skewed toward U.S. Treasuries. Its solid capital position helps it navigate a volatile market and invest in growth opportunities.
Progressive has also been investing in digitalization to improve margins. It has been continually improving its book value and lowering the leverage banking on operational expertise. Though its leverage compares unfavorably with the industry average, the times interest earned outperforms the industry.
Positive Analyst Sentiment Instills Confidence in PGR Stock
Six of the 11 analysts covering the stock raised 2024 estimates, while six raised the same in the past 30 days. Thus, estimates for Progressive’s 2024 earnings have declined 0.7%, while the same for 2025 have risen 0.1% over the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PGR's Growth Story Remains Impressive
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Progressive’s 2024 earnings is pegged at $13.20 per share, indicating an increase of 116% from the year-ago reported figure on 20.4% higher revenues of $74.4 billion. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at $13.79 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 4.5% on 15.9% higher revenues of $86.2 billion. The long-term earnings growth rate is currently pegged at 27.3%, better than the industry average of 11.2%. It has a Growth Score of A.
Progressive: An Outperformer
Shares of Progressive have surged 20.9% in the last six months, outperforming the industry’s increase of 12.3%, the Finance sector’s rise of 8.8% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s increase of 10.8% in the said time frame. The outperformance is backed by a compelling product portfolio, operational expertise and a solid capital position.
PGR vs Industry, Sector, S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Progressive have also outperformed some other auto insurers like The Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) and Travelers Companies (TRV - Free Report) , which have rallied 23.6% and 18.3%, respectively, in a year.
Progressive shares are trading below the 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend.
Average Target Price for PGR Suggests a Solid Upside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 17 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $280.18 per share. The average suggests a potential 15.4% upside from Friday’s closing price.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PGR's Expensive Valuation
PGR is currently expensive. It is trading at a P/B multiple of 5.43, higher than the industry average of 1.55. Given its market-leading presence, growth prospects, rising estimates and better return on invested capital, its premium valuation is justified.
Return on equity (ROE) for the trailing 12 months was 33.1%, comparing favorably with the industry’s 7.6%. This reflects its efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Also, return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing over the last few quarters as the company raised its capital investment over the same time frame. This reflects PGR’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 24.1%, better than the industry average of 5.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Should You Do With PGR Stock?
Progressive’s leadership position, coupled with a compelling product and service portfolio, continues to enhance customers’ experience, which, in turn, helps it grow policies in force through better retention and the addition of new customers.
Progressive has an impressive history of paying dividends uninterruptedly since 1971. Its solid growth prospects, decent earnings surprise history and VGM Score of A instill confidence in the stock. Thus, investors who own the stock should retain it in the portfolio.
Given the premium valuation, new investors should wait for a favorable entry point for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Image: Shutterstock
PGR's November Earnings Improve: Should You Buy or Hold the Stock?
The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) reported solid November 2024 results, wherein both the top and the bottom lines increased year over year. Net premiums written improved 18%, driven by the strong performance of operating businesses.
Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — improved 550 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 85.6.
PGR is one of the country’s largest auto insurance groups, the largest seller of motorcycle and boat policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written. A solid market presence, a convincing portfolio of products and services, and underwriting and operational expertise should help this insurer deliver steady profitability.
A Sneak Peek Into Monthly Results
November earnings per share of $1.71 per increased 48% year over year. Operating revenues of $6.9 billion improved 19.8% year over year. Net premiums earned increased 19%.
Policies in force were solid in the Personal Auto segment, up 21% year over year to 23.6 million. Special Lines improved 9% to 6.5 million. In the Personal Auto segment, Direct Auto increased 25% year over year to 13.9 million, while Agency Auto increased 17% to 9.7 million. Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment rose 4% year over year to 1.1 million. The Property business had 3.5 million policies in force, up 14%.
Total expenses increased 12% year over year to $5.3 billion, attributable to a 3% higher loss and loss adjustment expenses, a 15.8% increase in policy acquisition costs and an 81.1% jump in other underwriting expenses.
Investment Thesis
Progressive’s growth strategy includes prioritizing auto bundles, lowering exposure to risky properties and increasing segmentation through the rollout of new products. The insurer’s efforts to increase the share of Progressive auto and home bundled households, investments in mobile applications and the rollout of new products in a higher number of states should fuel growth.
A compelling product portfolio, leadership position, healthy policies in force, better pricing and a solid retention ratio should continue to fuel premium growth.
Policy life expectancy (PLE), a measure of customer retention, has improved in the last few years across all business lines. PLE should continue to improve as the auto insurer offers consumers a distinctive new auto insurance option along with competitive pricing.
Over a decade, PGR’s combined ratio has averaged less than 93%, which compares favorably with the industry average combined ratio of more than 100%. Prudent underwriting coupled with favorable reserve development should help the company maintain the momentum. Also, its reinsurance program shields the balance sheet from the impact of catastrophe events and active weather years.
PGR strategically maintains an investment portfolio skewed toward U.S. Treasuries. Its solid capital position helps it navigate a volatile market and invest in growth opportunities.
Progressive has also been investing in digitalization to improve margins. It has been continually improving its book value and lowering the leverage banking on operational expertise. Though its leverage compares unfavorably with the industry average, the times interest earned outperforms the industry.
Positive Analyst Sentiment Instills Confidence in PGR Stock
Six of the 11 analysts covering the stock raised 2024 estimates, while six raised the same in the past 30 days. Thus, estimates for Progressive’s 2024 earnings have declined 0.7%, while the same for 2025 have risen 0.1% over the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PGR's Growth Story Remains Impressive
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Progressive’s 2024 earnings is pegged at $13.20 per share, indicating an increase of 116% from the year-ago reported figure on 20.4% higher revenues of $74.4 billion. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at $13.79 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 4.5% on 15.9% higher revenues of $86.2 billion. The long-term earnings growth rate is currently pegged at 27.3%, better than the industry average of 11.2%. It has a Growth Score of A.
Progressive: An Outperformer
Shares of Progressive have surged 20.9% in the last six months, outperforming the industry’s increase of 12.3%, the Finance sector’s rise of 8.8% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s increase of 10.8% in the said time frame. The outperformance is backed by a compelling product portfolio, operational expertise and a solid capital position.
PGR vs Industry, Sector, S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Progressive have also outperformed some other auto insurers like The Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) and Travelers Companies (TRV - Free Report) , which have rallied 23.6% and 18.3%, respectively, in a year.
Progressive shares are trading below the 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend.
Average Target Price for PGR Suggests a Solid Upside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 17 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $280.18 per share. The average suggests a potential 15.4% upside from Friday’s closing price.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PGR's Expensive Valuation
PGR is currently expensive. It is trading at a P/B multiple of 5.43, higher than the industry average of 1.55. Given its market-leading presence, growth prospects, rising estimates and better return on invested capital, its premium valuation is justified.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
It has a Value Score of B.
Progressive’s Favorable Return on Capital
Return on equity (ROE) for the trailing 12 months was 33.1%, comparing favorably with the industry’s 7.6%. This reflects its efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Also, return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing over the last few quarters as the company raised its capital investment over the same time frame. This reflects PGR’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 24.1%, better than the industry average of 5.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Should You Do With PGR Stock?
Progressive’s leadership position, coupled with a compelling product and service portfolio, continues to enhance customers’ experience, which, in turn, helps it grow policies in force through better retention and the addition of new customers.
Progressive has an impressive history of paying dividends uninterruptedly since 1971. Its solid growth prospects, decent earnings surprise history and VGM Score of A instill confidence in the stock. Thus, investors who own the stock should retain it in the portfolio.
Given the premium valuation, new investors should wait for a favorable entry point for this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.