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COP's Valuation Looks Attractive: Is it Time to Buy the Stock?

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ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) is currently considered relatively undervalued, trading at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 4.97x. This figure is below the broader industry average of 6.79x and lower than other major upstream companies, such as Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG - Free Report) and EOG Resources Inc (EOG - Free Report) , which are trading at 9.73x and 5.32x EV/EBITDA, respectively. This discounted valuation suggests that the stock may offer the potential for further price appreciation.

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However, a thorough evaluation is necessary to assess whether this potential is backed by the company’s fundamentals, growth prospects and prevailing market conditions. A more in-depth analysis will help determine the stock's true value.

COP to Capitalize on Synergies From Marathon Oil Integration

Late last month, ConocoPhillips completed the Marathon Oil acquisition. The integration has broadened ConocoPhillips' key Lower 48 portfolio while enabling it to expand its presence in prolific, low-cost U.S. basins such as Eagle Ford, Bakken, Delaware and Permian, adding more than 2 billion barrels of resources.

The leading upstream energy company has consistently prioritized acquisitions that support its long-term objective of enhancing stockholder value. With the completion of its latest deal, ConocoPhillips anticipates achieving annual savings exceeding $1 billion by integrating operations and expects the savings to be fully realized within the next 12 months.

COP’s Robust Financial Health Offers a Safety Net

Like the Marathon Oil deal, previous acquisitions of Concho Resources and Shell plc's (SHEL - Free Report) Permian assets have increased ConocoPhillips' debt. However, most analysts believe COP will maintain a stronger balance sheet than industry peers, thanks to its substantial size and robust earnings.

As evident in the snapshot, COP’s total debt-to-capitalization of almost 27% is lower than 31.1% of the industry’s composite stocks. The company’s debt-to-capitalization ratio has consistently been lower than the composite stocks over the past few years. Thus, the robust financial position will aid the leading oil producer in combating periods of low crude prices.

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What Should Investors Do With COP Stock?

ConocoPhillips is also deeply committed to returning capital to its shareholders. For 2024, COP plans to return at least $9 billion through a mix of dividends and share buybacks. Specifically, in the fourth quarter of 2024, COP anticipates spending nearly $2 billion on repurchasing its shares.

Despite recent positive developments, investors should factor in ConocoPhillips' heightened vulnerability to oil price volatility, given its exclusive focus on exploration and production activities.

Additionally, projects such as Willow and LNG infrastructure will necessitate higher capital expenditures in the near future, especially in 2025. Although these investments are aimed at long-term growth, they could put pressure on cash flows in the short term.

There are also execution risks following the Marathon acquisition. While the deal is expected to generate significant synergies, there are still challenges in fully realizing these savings and seamlessly integrating the operations.

These unfavorable events are partially reflected in the stock price movement of COP, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Year to date (YTD), the stock declined 11.8%, underperforming the 4.3% gain of the industry’s composite stocks. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

YTD Price Chart

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Therefore, while the undervaluation of ConocoPhillips' stock presents an appealing investment opportunity, investors might prefer to wait until these uncertainties are addressed. This will provide greater insight into the company’s ability to implement its growth strategies, manage risks and deliver stable returns.

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