Important economic reports continue this second day of the trading week, as market disparity continues for another pre-market session, at least. Yesterday, the tech- and AI-heavy Nasdaq closed at yet another new record high, while the Dow closed lower for now eight straight trading days — its longest such stretch in six years.
At this hour, pre-market futures are down across the board. But while the Nasdaq has dropped -50 points (-0.23%) so far, the Dow is -203 points, (-0.46%). The S&P 500 is splitting the difference currently, -0.38%, with the small-cap Russell 2000 -0.49%.
Retail Sales Warmer than Expected in November
U.S. Retail Sales numbers have hit the tape this morning, with a headline month-over-month +0.7% higher than the +0.5% anticipated, and the biggest number since September’s +0.8%. Today’s figure ties the third-highest month of the year, and seems to to reaffirming that near-term Retail Sales lows are not from the trailing 4-month average of +0.6%, but the prior 4-month average of +0.2%.
Subtract monthly auto sales, and this Retail Sales number comes in below expectations by 10 basis points (bps) to +0.2%, with the previous month now revised up 10 bps to +0.2%. Same with ex-autos and gas, +0.2% and up 10 bps to +0.2% on the revision. The Control number came in-line with expectations at +0.4%, rallying off a hurricane-ravaged October’s -0.1%.
All of this is to say we’re more or less within the range of expectations for this data, which ought to not interfere with the widely expected 25 bps interest rate cut by the Fed tomorrow. This is the last pure retail economic print ahead of the rate decision (Housing Starts and Building Permits are out Wednesday morning).
What to Expect from Today’s Opening Bell
A mere 15 minutes ahead of the new regular trading session, we’ll also get Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers for November. We won’t have enough time to analyze this report here, so this will be forthcoming after today’s close.
Also, after the open this morning, a new Homebuilders Confidence Index for December comes out at 10am. Expectations are for this report to come in higher month over month but still below the 50-level, which marks the points between growth and contraction.
Otherwise, we predict market participants will tack toward caution today, so close to a new Fed funds rate and — more importantly — a press conference from Fed Chair Powell will help determine what the Fed thinks about 2025. After tomorrow afternoon, the next Fed meeting occurs on January 30-31 of next year.
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Retail Sales Comes in Higher Than Expected
Important economic reports continue this second day of the trading week, as market disparity continues for another pre-market session, at least. Yesterday, the tech- and AI-heavy Nasdaq closed at yet another new record high, while the Dow closed lower for now eight straight trading days — its longest such stretch in six years.
At this hour, pre-market futures are down across the board. But while the Nasdaq has dropped -50 points (-0.23%) so far, the Dow is -203 points, (-0.46%). The S&P 500 is splitting the difference currently, -0.38%, with the small-cap Russell 2000 -0.49%.
Retail Sales Warmer than Expected in November
U.S. Retail Sales numbers have hit the tape this morning, with a headline month-over-month +0.7% higher than the +0.5% anticipated, and the biggest number since September’s +0.8%. Today’s figure ties the third-highest month of the year, and seems to to reaffirming that near-term Retail Sales lows are not from the trailing 4-month average of +0.6%, but the prior 4-month average of +0.2%.
Subtract monthly auto sales, and this Retail Sales number comes in below expectations by 10 basis points (bps) to +0.2%, with the previous month now revised up 10 bps to +0.2%. Same with ex-autos and gas, +0.2% and up 10 bps to +0.2% on the revision. The Control number came in-line with expectations at +0.4%, rallying off a hurricane-ravaged October’s -0.1%.
All of this is to say we’re more or less within the range of expectations for this data, which ought to not interfere with the widely expected 25 bps interest rate cut by the Fed tomorrow. This is the last pure retail economic print ahead of the rate decision (Housing Starts and Building Permits are out Wednesday morning).
What to Expect from Today’s Opening Bell
A mere 15 minutes ahead of the new regular trading session, we’ll also get Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers for November. We won’t have enough time to analyze this report here, so this will be forthcoming after today’s close.
Also, after the open this morning, a new Homebuilders Confidence Index for December comes out at 10am. Expectations are for this report to come in higher month over month but still below the 50-level, which marks the points between growth and contraction.
Otherwise, we predict market participants will tack toward caution today, so close to a new Fed funds rate and — more importantly — a press conference from Fed Chair Powell will help determine what the Fed thinks about 2025. After tomorrow afternoon, the next Fed meeting occurs on January 30-31 of next year.