In the Global Week Ahead, markets likely trade on guidance President-elect Trump supplies about his 100-Day Plan priorities -- and on his initial cabinet choices.
First-term U.S. Presidents are often judged by their First 100 Days. The term was coined in a July 24th, 1933, radio address by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Mr. Trump begins his presidency on Jan. 20th, 2017. What he wants to get done is a lengthy 2-page sheet.
100-day Action Plan to Make America Great Again
Trump cannot achieve everything in his 100-Day platform.
After promising so much to so many -- in populist fashion -- will Trump get caught up in the same broken promises he railed against, and tagged as the pattern of DC’s ineffective establishment? Or will he overestimate support for his policies, and attempt more than the electorate is comfortable with?
Perhaps Trump strikes a balance. It is premature for markets to judge his policy choices well. But judge they do.
Last week, Trump stock market losers were companies doing business in Mexico, those heavily exposed to global trade, or those that rely upon U.S. regulation. The Mexican peso got killed too.
Winners were found in Pharma & Biotech, Oil & Gas and Defense sectors, and the Banks -- with an expectation for higher interest rates and inflation coming from the new Federal spending and tax cuts he could implement.
Talk is cheaper than action. We all know that. Successfully running for U.S. President is vastly different than governing the country well for 4 years.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) stocks
POSCO : This is an $18 billion market cap stock with a Zacks VGM score of A. POSCO is a multinational steel-making company headquartered in Pohang, South Korea. It had an output of 42 million tons of crude steel in 2015, making it the world's 4th-largest steelmaker by this measure.
Western Digital (WDC - Free Report) : This is a $16 billion market cap stock with a Zacks VGM score of B. Western Digital Corp. designs, develops, manufactures and markets a broad line of hard drives featuring leading-edge technology. The company's hard drives are designed for the desktop PC market and the high-end hard drive market and, recently, for the emerging market for hard drives specially designed for audio-visual applications, such as new video recording devices.
Sabre Corp. (SABR - Free Report) : This is a $7 billion market cap stock with a Zacks VGM score of B. Sabre Corp. engages in providing technology solutions to the global travel and tourism industry. The company operates 4 brands/businesses: Sabre Airline Solutions (R), Sabre Hospitality Solutions (R), Sabre Travel Network (R) and Travelocity (R).
Key Global Macro Events This Week—
Trump is scheduled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in NYC on Thursday -- at Mr. Abe’s request. During his campaign, he criticized Japan and other allies, for not paying their fair share to support American military bases.
Also on Thursday, keep an eye on Fed chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to the Senate’s Joint Economic Committee. Yellen is not expected to confirm a 25 basis point rate hike next month. However, she is expected to imply recent events -- aka the election results -- have not derailed the Fed. Ten other Fed officials also speak out this week.
Only 21 S&P 500 firms announce quarterly results this week.
On Monday, the preliminary reading on Japan’s GDP was supposed to be +0.8% q/q. It was +2.2%. That is a big beat.
The BoJ’s Kuroda speaks in Japan.
The Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Wichita Falls, TX. The Fed’s Lacker and Williams speak.
Retail sales in China looks to be +10.7% y/y.
It is Euro Finance week in Brussels.
On Tuesday, preliminary GDP in Germany looks to be +1.8% y/y.
Preliminary GDP in the Eurozone looks to be +1.6% y/y.
The HICP inflation rate in Spain is still too low at +0.5% y/y.
The South African unemployment rate is 26.6%, higher than Greece!
The German ZEW surveys come out. Current conditions should get to 60.4 from 59.4 and economic sentiment to 12.6 from 12.3.
On Wednesday, the Fed’s Bullard speaks in London.
The ILO unemployment rate in the UK is 4.9%.
The NAHB Builders survey index should be flat at 62.
On Thursday, The Fed’s Dudley and Brainerd speak in NYC.
The ILO unemployment rate in France is 9.9%.
Retail sales ex-auto & fuel looks to be 4.9% y/y.
Brazil’s proxy GDP looks poor at -4% y/y, worse than the prior -2.72%.
U.S. building permits should be 1.19 million, down from 1.225 million. However, U.S. housing starts should be 1.21 million, up from 1.047 million.
U.S. initial claims should be super low at 257K.
The Bank of Mexico holds an important monetary policy meeting.
On Friday, Russia’s unemployment rate should be 5.2%.