Back to top

Analyst Blog

Zacks Equity Research

Will Jack in the Box (JACK) Q4 Earnings Spring a Surprise?

JACK PIR RH BURL

Trades from $3

Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 numbers on Nov 21, after market close.

Last quarter, Jack in the Box posted a positive earnings surprise of 22.99%. In fact, the company surpassed earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters, with an average beat of 7.52%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

JACK IN THE BOX Price and EPS Surprise

 

JACK IN THE BOX Price and EPS Surprise | JACK IN THE BOX Quote

Factors Likely to Influence this Quarter

Jack in the Box’s same-store sales have been consistently outperforming the industry over the past several quarters. Particularly, the company’s Qdoba brand has been witnessing comps growth on the back of menu innovation. We expect the trend to continue in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, increased marketing and remodeling efforts along with investments in technology-driven initiatives should drive top-line growth. Moreover, the company is currently focusing deeply on catering sales. This is expected to boost its sales in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, a soft consumer spending environment in the U.S. restaurant space might hurt traffic and comps in the to-be-reported quarter.

In fact, for fourth-quarter fiscal 2016, the company expects comps growth at the Jack in the Box restaurants in the range of 1–2% compared with the year-ago comps growth of 4.1%. For the Qdoba restaurants, comps are projected to grow in the range of 1–2% compared with 6.1% comps growth in the year-ago quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Jack in the Box is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as elaborated below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks ESP: Jack in the Box has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 88 cents.

Zacks Rank: Jack in the Box has a Zacks Rank #3 which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Meanwhile, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.06% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (PIR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.33% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc. (RH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Confidential from Zacks

Beyond this Analyst Blog, would you like to see Zacks' best recommendations that are not available to the public? Our Executive VP, Steve Reitmeister, knows when key trades are about to be triggered and which of our experts has the hottest hand. Click to see them now>>

Zacks Restaurant Recommendations: In addition to dining at these special places, you can feast on their stock shares. A Zacks Special Report spotlights 5 recent IPOs to watch plus 2 stocks that offer immediate promise in a booming sector. Download it free »


In-Depth Zacks Research for the Tickers Above

Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:

JACK IN THE BOX (JACK) - free report >>

PIER 1 IMPORTS (PIR) - free report >>

RESTORATION HDW (RH) - free report >>

BURLINGTON STRS (BURL) - free report >>