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Rise in AUM, GIP Buyout Likely to Support BlackRock's Q4 Earnings

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BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results tomorrow before the opening bell. Its quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have improved year over year.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

BLK’s third-quarter 2024 earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from a rise in revenues and non-operating income, partially offset by higher expenses. Further, the company’s assets under management (AUM) touched $11.5 trillion, driven by net inflows and market appreciation.

BlackRock has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.86%.

Surprise History
 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the to-be-reported quarter, let us check the factors that are likely to have impacted BlackRock’s quarterly performance.

Major Factors to Note & Q4 Estimates for BLK

AUM: BlackRock is a dominant player in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, given its continued investments in the U.S. iShare core ETFs (offering more than 1,400 ETFs globally). Last year, the company received approval for the spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs, which have been supporting AUM growth. 

Further, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to have complemented BlackRock’s organic growth strategy of raising its AUM through diversified offerings and a strong revenue mix. Also, the post-election surge in enthusiasm for Bitcoin immensely benefited the company. The inflows into the company’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund have pushed iShares Bitcoin Trust past $50 billion in assets in just 11 months following its launch in mid-January 2024. 

Moreover, on Oct. 1, 2024, BlackRock completed the acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners (“GIP”). This added about $170 billion in AUM.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM is pegged at $10.86 trillion, suggesting a year-over-year jump of 18.5%. Our estimate for AUM is $11.75 trillion.

Revenue Components: BlackRock is expected to have recorded an increase in its investment advisory, administration fees and securities-lending revenues on improving inflows. The consensus estimate for the metric stands at $4.39 billion, suggesting a 21.8% year-over-year rise. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $4.28 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment advisory performance fees is pegged at $383 million, indicating 23.2% growth. Our estimate for the same is $296.5 million.

Management projects the GIP deal to add almost $250 million in management fees in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $337.2 million suggests a rise of 11.3%. We project the metric to be $351 million. The consensus estimate for technology services revenues is pegged at $418.8 million, implying a 10.5% year-over-year rise. We project the metric to increase to $421.4 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for advisory and other revenues is pegged at $55 million, which indicates a year-over-year jump of 66.5%. We project the metric to be $63.4 million.

Expenses: BlackRock’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Overall costs are expected to have increased in the fourth quarter, given that the company has been continuing its restructuring initiatives to modify the size and shape of its workforce and improve operating efficiency. Also, the company’s inorganic expansion efforts are likely to have led to an increase in expenses.

The company anticipates core G&A expenses to reflect technological investment at the third-quarter level and seasonal increases in marketing spend. 

Our estimate for total expenses is pinned at $3.39 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 11.2%.

Major Developments in Q4 for BlackRock

In December, BlackRock announced a definitive agreement to acquire HPS Investment Partners for $12 billion in an all-equity transaction. The move signals the company’s deeper foray into the private credit market, which is rapidly emerging as one of the most lucrative sectors in global finance.

Under the agreement, BLK will be issuing 12.1 million SubCo Units through a wholly-owned subsidiary. These units are exchangeable on a one-to-one basis for BlackRock common stock and carry equivalent dividend rights.

Approximately 75% of the payment will be made at closing, with the remaining 25% deferred for five years, contingent on financial performance milestones. An additional $675 million will be allocated to an equity retention pool for HPS Investment employees.

The deal is expected to close in mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals. In 2025, HPS Investment is expected to add approximately $850 million of the base fee and nearly $360 million of post-tax Fee-related earnings (FRE) at a 50% margin.

What Our Model Unveils for BlackRock

According to our quantitative model, the chances of BlackRock beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it doesn’t have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BlackRock is -1.21%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings of $11.44 has been revised marginally north over the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 18.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $5.58 billion, which suggests a rise of 20.5%.

Stocks Worth a Look

Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases, per our model:

JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) is scheduled to release quarterly earnings on Jan. 15. The company has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and an Earnings ESP of +1.36% at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s quarterly earnings has moved 1.8% upward to $4.02.

The Earnings ESP for PNC Financial (PNC - Free Report) is +1.24% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report quarterly results on Jan. 16.

PNC’s quarterly earnings estimates have been revised marginally north to $3.30 over the past week.


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