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CAT Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report) is anticipated to witness top and bottom-line declines when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 30, before the opening bell.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has moved down 0.6% over the past 60 days to $4.97 per share. The consensus mark implies a 5% dip from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $16.64 billion, suggesting a 2.5% year-over-year decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CAT’s Earnings Surprise History
Caterpillar’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing once, the average surprise being 6.14%. This is depicted in the following chart.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for the CAT Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Caterpillar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: CAT has an Earnings ESP of -6.29%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped CAT’s Q4 Performance
The manufacturing sector continued to experience weakness in the October-December quarter. This was evident from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index remaining below the 50% level for the period, averaging 48.1%. Demand has been subdued as companies have been refraining from making capital investments.
While the New Orders Index initially contracted in October with a 47.1% reading, it inched up to 50.4% in November and 52.5% in December. The index averaged 50% in the quarter. The impacts of this are expected to get reflected in Caterpillar’s fourth-quarter order levels.
Also, CAT’s substantial backlog of $28.7 billion at the beginning of the quarter, and higher aftermarket parts and service-related revenues are likely to have supported its fourth-quarter top line. This is expected to have been negated by lower dealer inventories in the quarter. Volumes are expected to have been impacted by weak demand in some of its markets.
Overall, lower volumes and pricing are expected to have weighed on CAT’s top-line performance in the quarter under review.
Caterpillar has been witnessing moderate input cost inflation lately. We expect the company’s cost of sales to decline 6.1% in the fourth quarter due to favorable manufacturing costs. We also expect lower selling general and administrative (SG&A), and research and development (R&D) expenses, reflecting the benefits of lower short-term incentive compensation contrary to high expenses in the prior-year quarter. The projected year-over-year decline in SG&A and R&D expenses are at 0.7% and 3.3%, respectively, for the fourth quarter. Savings from Caterpillar’s cost-control measures and restructuring actions are likely to have negated some of these setbacks.
Our model projects a 2.8% year-over-year decrease in operating income to $3.1 billion. This factors in the expected decline in revenues, somewhat offset by lower costs and expenses. We expect the operating margin to be 19.1% in the fourth quarter, implying a slight improvement from the 18.9% reported in the fourth quarter of 2023. The impacts of lower volumes on margins are expected to have been offset by favorable costs.
Our Projections for CAT's Segments in Q4
Our model projects the Resource Industries segment's external sales at $2.87 billion for the fourth quarter, indicating a 9% year-over-year decline. We expect a 9.6% dip in volume for the segment and an unfavorable 0.2% currency impact to be partially offset by a 0.8% increase in pricing. The projection for lower volumes primarily reflects the ongoing weakness in demand. The segment is expected to report an operating profit of $603 million, suggesting a 0.5% year-over-year increase. The segment’s operating margin is projected to be 21%, indicating an improvement from the 19% reported in fourth-quarter 2023.
The Construction segment’s external sales are projected at $5.86 billion, indicating a decline of 9.7% from the year-ago quarter’s actual, led by a 7.4% drop in volume, a 1.5% dip in pricing and a 0.8% unfavorable currency impact. A lower level of rental fleet loading in North America, and weak demand in the Asia Pacific and Europe are expected to have weighed on volumes. The above-10-ton excavator market in China has been impacted due to the slowdown in its real estate industry. Modest demand in Latin America is expected to have negated some of the weakness in other areas. The Construction segment’s operating profit is projected to be $1.37 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 11%. We project the segment’s margins to be 23.3%, implying a dip from the year-ago quarter’s actual of 23.7%.
For the Energy & Transportation segment, we expect external sales to be $6.84 billion, suggesting a 3.9% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual. Volume growth is projected to be 1.3%, implying improved demand across Oil & Gas, Power Generation, and Transportation, offset by weak demand in industrial. Pricing is expected to contribute 2.5% to the segment’s sales growth, while currency translation is anticipated to contribute a positive 0.1%. The consensus estimate for the segment’s operating profit is pegged at $1.57 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting 10% year-over-year growth. The operating margin is projected to be 23% for the fourth quarter, implying a rise from the 21.7% reported in the prior-year quarter.
CAT’s Price Performance & Valuation
Caterpillar has appreciated 34.4% in the past year, outperforming its industry’s 30.9% growth. It has also outpaced the broader Zacks Industrial Products sector’s 16.2% rise and the S&P 500’s climb of 24.8%.
Caterpillar’s Price Performance Vs Industry & Broader Market
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar’s Price Performance Vs Peers
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The CAT stock’s performance has been upbeat compared with its peers. Shares of Komatsu (KMTUY - Free Report) have risen 8.6%, while Terex (TEX - Free Report) and The Manitowoc Company (MTW - Free Report) have declined 22.5% and 40.1%, respectively.
Caterpillar is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 18.75, at a premium compared with the industry’s 17.77X. The stock is also not cheap when compared with Komatsu, Terex and Manitowoc, all of which are trading at 11.57, 9.11 and 12.24, respectively, which are below the industry’s average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis on CAT
Despite the current market weakness, CAT’s strong market presence, diverse product portfolio and focus on innovation position it for an improved performance, going forward. Its long-term demand prospects are well-supported by increased infrastructure spending and the ongoing shift toward clean energy. Focus on growing service revenues, which generate higher margins, is a strategic move. A strong financial position enables it to invest in its businesses and return cash to shareholders through share buybacks and dividend payments. However, the weakness in the 10-ton and above excavator market in China, which had been one of its largest markets previously, remains concerning.
How Should You Play CAT Pre-Q4 Earnings?
Caterpillar's performance has always been closely watched by investors, as it serves as a key economic barometer for the sector. CAT’s fourth-quarter revenues are expected to have been dampened by weaker volumes in the Construction and Resource Industries segments, somewhat offset by improved volumes in the Energy & Transportation segment. Earnings are anticipated to have declined due to weak volumes despite favorable manufacturing costs, and lower SG&A and R&D expenses. This is likely to have been the second quarter of a decline in earnings for the company after an enviable stint of positive earnings growth for 14 straight quarters.
No matter how the upcoming quarterly results play out, investors who already own CAT shares should retain the stock in their portfolios to benefit from its solid long-term fundamentals. However, given its premium valuation and the ongoing decline in revenues and earnings, new investors can wait for a better entry point.
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CAT Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report) is anticipated to witness top and bottom-line declines when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 30, before the opening bell.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has moved down 0.6% over the past 60 days to $4.97 per share. The consensus mark implies a 5% dip from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $16.64 billion, suggesting a 2.5% year-over-year decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CAT’s Earnings Surprise History
Caterpillar’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing once, the average surprise being 6.14%. This is depicted in the following chart.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for the CAT Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Caterpillar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: CAT has an Earnings ESP of -6.29%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped CAT’s Q4 Performance
The manufacturing sector continued to experience weakness in the October-December quarter. This was evident from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index remaining below the 50% level for the period, averaging 48.1%. Demand has been subdued as companies have been refraining from making capital investments.
While the New Orders Index initially contracted in October with a 47.1% reading, it inched up to 50.4% in November and 52.5% in December. The index averaged 50% in the quarter. The impacts of this are expected to get reflected in Caterpillar’s fourth-quarter order levels.
Also, CAT’s substantial backlog of $28.7 billion at the beginning of the quarter, and higher aftermarket parts and service-related revenues are likely to have supported its fourth-quarter top line. This is expected to have been negated by lower dealer inventories in the quarter. Volumes are expected to have been impacted by weak demand in some of its markets.
Overall, lower volumes and pricing are expected to have weighed on CAT’s top-line performance in the quarter under review.
Caterpillar has been witnessing moderate input cost inflation lately. We expect the company’s cost of sales to decline 6.1% in the fourth quarter due to favorable manufacturing costs. We also expect lower selling general and administrative (SG&A), and research and development (R&D) expenses, reflecting the benefits of lower short-term incentive compensation contrary to high expenses in the prior-year quarter. The projected year-over-year decline in SG&A and R&D expenses are at 0.7% and 3.3%, respectively, for the fourth quarter. Savings from Caterpillar’s cost-control measures and restructuring actions are likely to have negated some of these setbacks.
Our model projects a 2.8% year-over-year decrease in operating income to $3.1 billion. This factors in the expected decline in revenues, somewhat offset by lower costs and expenses. We expect the operating margin to be 19.1% in the fourth quarter, implying a slight improvement from the 18.9% reported in the fourth quarter of 2023. The impacts of lower volumes on margins are expected to have been offset by favorable costs.
Our Projections for CAT's Segments in Q4
Our model projects the Resource Industries segment's external sales at $2.87 billion for the fourth quarter, indicating a 9% year-over-year decline. We expect a 9.6% dip in volume for the segment and an unfavorable 0.2% currency impact to be partially offset by a 0.8% increase in pricing. The projection for lower volumes primarily reflects the ongoing weakness in demand. The segment is expected to report an operating profit of $603 million, suggesting a 0.5% year-over-year increase. The segment’s operating margin is projected to be 21%, indicating an improvement from the 19% reported in fourth-quarter 2023.
The Construction segment’s external sales are projected at $5.86 billion, indicating a decline of 9.7% from the year-ago quarter’s actual, led by a 7.4% drop in volume, a 1.5% dip in pricing and a 0.8% unfavorable currency impact. A lower level of rental fleet loading in North America, and weak demand in the Asia Pacific and Europe are expected to have weighed on volumes. The above-10-ton excavator market in China has been impacted due to the slowdown in its real estate industry. Modest demand in Latin America is expected to have negated some of the weakness in other areas. The Construction segment’s operating profit is projected to be $1.37 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 11%. We project the segment’s margins to be 23.3%, implying a dip from the year-ago quarter’s actual of 23.7%.
For the Energy & Transportation segment, we expect external sales to be $6.84 billion, suggesting a 3.9% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual. Volume growth is projected to be 1.3%, implying improved demand across Oil & Gas, Power Generation, and Transportation, offset by weak demand in industrial. Pricing is expected to contribute 2.5% to the segment’s sales growth, while currency translation is anticipated to contribute a positive 0.1%. The consensus estimate for the segment’s operating profit is pegged at $1.57 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting 10% year-over-year growth. The operating margin is projected to be 23% for the fourth quarter, implying a rise from the 21.7% reported in the prior-year quarter.
CAT’s Price Performance & Valuation
Caterpillar has appreciated 34.4% in the past year, outperforming its industry’s 30.9% growth. It has also outpaced the broader Zacks Industrial Products sector’s 16.2% rise and the S&P 500’s climb of 24.8%.
Caterpillar’s Price Performance Vs Industry & Broader Market
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar’s Price Performance Vs Peers
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The CAT stock’s performance has been upbeat compared with its peers. Shares of Komatsu (KMTUY - Free Report) have risen 8.6%, while Terex (TEX - Free Report) and The Manitowoc Company (MTW - Free Report) have declined 22.5% and 40.1%, respectively.
Caterpillar is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 18.75, at a premium compared with the industry’s 17.77X. The stock is also not cheap when compared with Komatsu, Terex and Manitowoc, all of which are trading at 11.57, 9.11 and 12.24, respectively, which are below the industry’s average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis on CAT
Despite the current market weakness, CAT’s strong market presence, diverse product portfolio and focus on innovation position it for an improved performance, going forward. Its long-term demand prospects are well-supported by increased infrastructure spending and the ongoing shift toward clean energy. Focus on growing service revenues, which generate higher margins, is a strategic move. A strong financial position enables it to invest in its businesses and return cash to shareholders through share buybacks and dividend payments. However, the weakness in the 10-ton and above excavator market in China, which had been one of its largest markets previously, remains concerning.
How Should You Play CAT Pre-Q4 Earnings?
Caterpillar's performance has always been closely watched by investors, as it serves as a key economic barometer for the sector. CAT’s fourth-quarter revenues are expected to have been dampened by weaker volumes in the Construction and Resource Industries segments, somewhat offset by improved volumes in the Energy & Transportation segment. Earnings are anticipated to have declined due to weak volumes despite favorable manufacturing costs, and lower SG&A and R&D expenses. This is likely to have been the second quarter of a decline in earnings for the company after an enviable stint of positive earnings growth for 14 straight quarters.
No matter how the upcoming quarterly results play out, investors who already own CAT shares should retain the stock in their portfolios to benefit from its solid long-term fundamentals. However, given its premium valuation and the ongoing decline in revenues and earnings, new investors can wait for a better entry point.