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Match Group to Report Q4 Earnings: Buy, Hold or Sell the Stock?

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Match Group (MTCH - Free Report) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 4.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 revenues is pegged at $856.04 million, suggesting a decrease of 1.18% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 84 cents per share, which has moved down 2.3% over the past 30 days. The estimate indicates 3.70% year-over-year growth.

Match Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Match Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Match Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | Match Group Inc. Quote

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and matched once, the average surprise being 21.55%.

Let us see how things have shaped up before this announcement.

Factors to Note

MTCH’s fourth-quarter 2024 performance is expected to have benefited from sustained investments in product development, which have introduced the latest features, improved user experience and enhanced engagement across its platforms. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Match Group’s efforts to enter markets and demographics, driven by Tinder’s global expansion and localized features, are likely to have benefited the company by increasing its user base and creating revenue growth opportunities.

MTCH operates a diverse portfolio of more than 45 brands, including well-known names like Tinder, Match.com, PlentyOfFish, Meetic and OkCupid, which cater to various user preferences and markets. The company is likely to have benefited from the broad reach and strong brand recognition these platforms provide.

Targeted marketing strategies and advertising campaigns are expected to have benefited the company in the to-be-reported quarter by increasing brand visibility and attracting new users, which should contribute to continued growth.

However, the company faced more-than-expected pressure on user registrations and reactivations from mid-September through October, which contributed to a decline in monthly active users (MAU). This was reflected in its third-quarter 2024 results, wherein Tinder saw a 9% year-over-year decline in MAU, mirroring the same rate of decline observed in the second quarter. These factors are expected to have hurt the to-be-reported quarter.

Recently, Tinder launched several ALC (Active Lifecycle) initiatives, such as Passport ALC and Likes You ALC, which were well received by users but had a significant negative impact on subscription revenues. These developments are expected to have impacted the fourth-quarter 2024 performance.

What Our Model Says

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.

Match Group currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.20% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.78% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Amazon shares have risen 47.4% in the trailing 12 months. AMZN is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 6.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and a Zacks Rank #2.

CMG shares have gained 20.5% in the trailing 12 months. Chipotle Mexican Grill is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 4.

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.71% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

O'Reilly shares have returned 25.7% in the trailing 12 months. ORLY is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 05.

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