Murphy USA (MUSA Quick QuoteMUSA - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter results on Feb. 5. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is earnings of $6.43 per share on revenues of $5 billion.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the downstream operator’s results in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at MUSA’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the El Dorado, AR-based motor fuel retailer, beat the consensus mark, backed by higher fuel margins. MUSA had reported earnings per share of $7.20, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.64. However, revenues of $5.2 billion came in 6.5% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate due to tepid petroleum product sales.

Murphy USA beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, and missed in the other. This is depicted in the graph below:

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has been revised 2 cents (or 0.3%) upward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates an 8.1% drop year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 1.7% decrease from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

Our model sees MUSA’s total fuel contribution gain of 1.8% year over year to $400.1 million on the strength in retail profits. Moreover, total fuel contribution (including retail fuel margin plus product supply and wholesale results) is likely to have come in at 33.1 cents per gallon compared to 32.5 cents in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Murphy USA is also expected to have benefited from higher petroleum product sales during the quarter. Our model projects the company’s fourth-quarter petroleum product sales at $4.1 billion, up 3.5% from the prior-year quarter’s level of $4 billion. Further, our model predicts MUSA to clock merchandise sales of $1.1 billion compared with the year-ago quarter’s $1 billion. This increase in sales is likely to have had a positive effect on the fourth-quarter revenues and cash flows of Murphy USA.

But on a bearish note, price fluctuations might play spoilsport. Investors should know that gasoline prices remain volatile, and if fuel margins compress, earnings growth might struggle. Given that fuel sales are Murphy USA’s core revenue driver, sustained price declines could have presented a major headwind in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Moreover, the increase in Murphy USA’s petroleum product costs may dent its to-be-reported bottom line. As per our model, the metric is expected to show 3.8% growth over the fourth quarter of 2023 to $3.8 billion.

What Does Our Model Say?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Murphy USA is likely to beat estimates in the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -1.35%.

Zacks Rank: MUSA currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Murphy USA, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Antero Resources (AR Quick QuoteAR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.41% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 12.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Antero Resources’ 2025 earnings per share indicates a remarkable 3,778% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $11.6 billion, AR has surged 76.7% in a year.(AR Quick QuoteAR - Free Report)

Energy Transfer (ET Quick QuoteET - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 11.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Transfer’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 6.4% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $710.1billion, ET has gained 43.2% in a year.

Helmerich & Payne (HP Quick QuoteHP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.29% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 5.

Helmerich & Payne beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, with the average being 14.9%. Valued at around $3.2 billion, HP has lost 14.9% in a year.