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Here's What You Should Know About Yum China Ahead of Q4 Earnings

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Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 6, before the opening bell.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.2% and rose 17% year over year. Total revenues marginally missed the consensus mark by 0.3% but grew 5.4% from the year-ago quarter.

YUMC’s earnings surpassed expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 32.5%.

Trend in YUMC’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) has trended down to 30 cents from 31 cents over the past 30 days. However, the estimated figure indicates 20% growth from the prior-year period.

Yum China Price and EPS Surprise

Yum China Price and EPS Surprise

Yum China price-eps-surprise | Yum China Quote

The consensus estimate for total revenues is pegged at $2.67 billion, indicating a 7% increase from the year-ago period.

Factors Likely to Shape Yum China’s Q4 Results

Yum China’s top line is expected to have increased year over year due to net new unit contributions driving the robust total system sales growth. This, alongside the company’s focus on value-for-money and innovative new products, effective execution of the RGM 2.0 strategy, efficient advertising and marketing efforts and breakthrough business models, is likely to have added to the uptrend. The business models include the side-by-side KCOFFEE Cafes and Pizza Hut WOW, which have shown great potential upon their launches.

Our model expects revenues from KFC (contributed 86.1% to third-quarter 2024 total revenues) and Pizza Hut (contributed 20% to third-quarter total revenues) to grow year over year by 7.8% to $2.02 billion and 5.9% to $525.4 million, respectively.

The tailwinds mentioned above are expected to have been incremental for growth in guest traffic, reflecting the resilience of the several initiatives undertaken to improve the profitability of the company.

Moreover, the bottom line of YUMC is expected to have improved year over year on the back of favorable commodity prices and savings from spending better and buying better initiatives under Project Red Eye. Although wage increases for the frontline staff and the impact of sales deleveraging are likely to have restricted the prospects to some extent, strategic initiatives undertaken to improve operational efficiency and stabilize restaurant margin are expected to have boosted Yum China’s prospects.

We expect the adjusted operating profit margin to increase 130 basis points (bps) year over year to 6%, with adjusted operating profit increasing 37.7% to $159.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) and adjusted EBITDA margin are also expected to grow year over year by 16.6% to $283.4 million and 90 bps to 10.6%.

What Our Model Unveils for YUMC

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Yum China this time around. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: YUMC has an Earnings ESP of -4.13%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.78% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

AMZN’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to increase 50.5%. The company reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 25.9%.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

CMG reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 9.8%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to increase 14.3%.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.20% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

CAKE’s earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 are expected to increase 13.8%. The company reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 14.1%.

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