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Rivian Pre-Q4 Earnings Analysis: Is the Stock Worth Buying Now?
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Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Thursday, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a loss of 66 cents a share on revenues of $1.43 billion.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The loss per share estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024 has narrowed by a cent over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year improvement of 51.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 8.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s revenues is pegged at $5.21 billion, implying a rise of 12% year over year. The consensus mark for the 2025 bottom line is pegged at a loss of $2.52 per share, indicating an improvement from a loss of $4.02 per share projected for 2024. In the trailing four quarters, this California-based electric vehicle (EV) startup missed EPS estimates thrice and beat on the other, with the average negative earnings surprise being 7.47%.
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Rivian this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Rivian sold 14,183 vehicles in the December quarter, surpassing Wall Street’s estimate of 13,000 units and edging out its delivery figure of 13,972 units in the fourth quarter of 2023. Production in the fourth quarter of 2024 came in at 12,727 units, lower than 17,541 units in the year-ago period due to supply chain challenges.
Rivian is making efforts to improve its cost structure through manufacturing adjustments. In the last reported quarter, the company’s gross loss narrowed and operating expenses also reduced. Encouragingly, Rivian expects to achieve a modest positive gross margin in the quarter-to-be-reported, driven by three key factors. First, revenue per vehicle is likely to rise due to higher non-vehicle sales (including regulatory credits, services, and software) and a stronger mix of premium models like the Tri-Motor R1. Second, variable costs are coming down due to a reduction in material costs as a result of design changes, supplier deals and lower raw material prices. Lastly, fixed costs per vehicle are declining thanks to manufacturing efficiencies and lower inventory-related losses.
RIVN Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past six months, shares of RIVN have declined 8%, underperforming the industry, sector and the S&P 500 index.
6-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RIVN is currently trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.58. In comparison, Rivian’s peer Lucid Group (LCID - Free Report) is trading at a forward sales multiple of 6.23. Meanwhile, EV giant Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is currently trading at 10.09X forward sales.
RIVN Relatively Undervalued
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play Rivian Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Rivian faced production and supply chain challenges last year but has now resolved its component shortages. This sets the stage for smoother production of its R1 and RCV platforms. A sharper focus on cost efficiency should also help improve profitability. Material costs for the R1 lineup are expected to drop 20% in 2025, while the upcoming R2 models could see a 45% cost reduction.
A major growth driver is Rivian’s partnership with Volkswagen (VWAGY - Free Report) , which aims to enhance technology and speed up production. Rivian is also expanding its product lineup with the R2, R3 and R3X models. The R2, a midsize SUV priced at $45,000 (offering a more affordable option compared to Rivian’s premium R1 lineup), is set for launch in 2026 and could attract more budget-conscious buyers, broadening Rivian’s market reach.
However, Rivian still faces quite a few challenges and has lots to prove. Cash burn remains a key concern, with cash reserves falling from $7.9 billion at the end of 2023 to $5.4 billion in third-quarter 2024. Political uncertainty also poses risks. President Trump’s unfriendly stance on e-mobility and concerns over potential shifts in EV policies have grown. Looming tariff concerns can also put pressure on the supply chain. Additionally, growing competition from both legacy automakers and new entrants might put pressure on Rivian’s market position.
Given these risks, buying Rivian stock now may not be ideal. Investors will keep an eye on whether Rivian meets its target of achieving gross profit in fourth-quarter 2024 — a key milestone that could boost confidence. So, waiting for its upcoming results before making any investment decision would be a smarter move.
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Rivian Pre-Q4 Earnings Analysis: Is the Stock Worth Buying Now?
Rivian Automotive (RIVN - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Thursday, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a loss of 66 cents a share on revenues of $1.43 billion.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The loss per share estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024 has narrowed by a cent over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year improvement of 51.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 8.5%.
For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s revenues is pegged at $5.21 billion, implying a rise of 12% year over year. The consensus mark for the 2025 bottom line is pegged at a loss of $2.52 per share, indicating an improvement from a loss of $4.02 per share projected for 2024. In the trailing four quarters, this California-based electric vehicle (EV) startup missed EPS estimates thrice and beat on the other, with the average negative earnings surprise being 7.47%.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Rivian Automotive, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Rivian Automotive, Inc. Quote
Q4 Earnings Whispers for RIVN
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Rivian this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
RIVN has an Earnings ESP of +6.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping Rivian’s Q4 Results
Rivian sold 14,183 vehicles in the December quarter, surpassing Wall Street’s estimate of 13,000 units and edging out its delivery figure of 13,972 units in the fourth quarter of 2023. Production in the fourth quarter of 2024 came in at 12,727 units, lower than 17,541 units in the year-ago period due to supply chain challenges.
Rivian is making efforts to improve its cost structure through manufacturing adjustments. In the last reported quarter, the company’s gross loss narrowed and operating expenses also reduced. Encouragingly, Rivian expects to achieve a modest positive gross margin in the quarter-to-be-reported, driven by three key factors. First, revenue per vehicle is likely to rise due to higher non-vehicle sales (including regulatory credits, services, and software) and a stronger mix of premium models like the Tri-Motor R1. Second, variable costs are coming down due to a reduction in material costs as a result of design changes, supplier deals and lower raw material prices. Lastly, fixed costs per vehicle are declining thanks to manufacturing efficiencies and lower inventory-related losses.
RIVN Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past six months, shares of RIVN have declined 8%, underperforming the industry, sector and the S&P 500 index.
6-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RIVN is currently trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.58. In comparison, Rivian’s peer Lucid Group (LCID - Free Report) is trading at a forward sales multiple of 6.23. Meanwhile, EV giant Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is currently trading at 10.09X forward sales.
RIVN Relatively Undervalued
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How to Play Rivian Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Rivian faced production and supply chain challenges last year but has now resolved its component shortages. This sets the stage for smoother production of its R1 and RCV platforms. A sharper focus on cost efficiency should also help improve profitability. Material costs for the R1 lineup are expected to drop 20% in 2025, while the upcoming R2 models could see a 45% cost reduction.
A major growth driver is Rivian’s partnership with Volkswagen (VWAGY - Free Report) , which aims to enhance technology and speed up production. Rivian is also expanding its product lineup with the R2, R3 and R3X models. The R2, a midsize SUV priced at $45,000 (offering a more affordable option compared to Rivian’s premium R1 lineup), is set for launch in 2026 and could attract more budget-conscious buyers, broadening Rivian’s market reach.
However, Rivian still faces quite a few challenges and has lots to prove. Cash burn remains a key concern, with cash reserves falling from $7.9 billion at the end of 2023 to $5.4 billion in third-quarter 2024. Political uncertainty also poses risks. President Trump’s unfriendly stance on e-mobility and concerns over potential shifts in EV policies have grown. Looming tariff concerns can also put pressure on the supply chain. Additionally, growing competition from both legacy automakers and new entrants might put pressure on Rivian’s market position.
Given these risks, buying Rivian stock now may not be ideal. Investors will keep an eye on whether Rivian meets its target of achieving gross profit in fourth-quarter 2024 — a key milestone that could boost confidence. So, waiting for its upcoming results before making any investment decision would be a smarter move.