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KDP Poised to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Surprise in the Cards?

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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP - Free Report) is poised to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 25, before market open. Analysts are anticipating another decent performance from this beverage and coffee company with a year-over-year increase in revenues and earnings per share.

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For fourth-quarter revenues, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $4.03 billion, indicating a 4.2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s figure. The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has moved down a penny in the past 30 days to 57 cents per share. This figure calls for a 3.6% increase from the prior-year period. Also, the company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.4%, on average.

Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc Quote

Key Factors to Note Ahead of KDP’s Results

Keurig’s consumer-focused innovation model, supported by comprehensive scorecards tracking awareness, household penetration and loyalty, is expected to have driven continued market share gains in the to-be-reported quarter. The company's strategic focus on innovation, brand activity and strong commercial execution, combined with disciplined capital management and cost efficiency, positions it well for sustained growth across key categories such as liquid refreshment beverages, K-Cup pods and brewers.

Building on its successful expansion efforts, KDP's recent asset integration in Arizona and its extended distribution footprint in Tennessee are set to further enhance its operational reach and market presence. In Mexico, the company-owned Direct Store Delivery network continues to provide a significant competitive advantage in a market heavily reliant on traditional trade. The ongoing investments in expanding system coverage, adding selling routes and increasing cooler placements have already demonstrated strong growth trends, and these efforts are expected to yield further positive momentum in the to-be-reported quarter.

On its last earnings call, management reaffirmed its full-year guidance, alongside initiating projects to sustain growth over multiple years. The company expects 2024 constant-currency net sales growth in the mid-single digits. It continues to envision adjusted earnings per share growth in the high-single digits.

Keurig has been experiencing strong momentum in its Refreshment Beverages segment, which has been a key growth driver. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this segment is pegged at $2.4 billion, representing a significant 4.7% year-over-year increase. This growth was led by strong sales and a good mix of products, helped by completing the transition of Electrolit. Results were driven by growth CSDs, thanks to affordable prices and strategic marketing. Continuation of this trend will aid the company’s top line in the near term.

KDP’s strong market share momentum is expected to continue in the upcoming quarter, driven by successful innovation, brand strength and strategic marketing. Dr Pepper’s popularity, fueled by its creamy coconut flavor and expanding zero-sugar options, will likely gain further traction, especially with the ongoing Fansville football campaign. Canada Dry’s Fruit Splash, 7UP’s refreshed look and Shirley Temple flavor are generating social media buzz, supporting continued category growth.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for KDP

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Keurig this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Keurig currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.93% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Valuation Picture of KDP Stock

From a valuation perspective, Keurig stock is trading at a discount relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 15.98x, below the five-year high of 23.33x, and the Beverages - Soft drinks industry’s average of 18.41x, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.

Keurig shares have shown a upward trend, gaining 1.7% in the past three months, as compared the industry’s growth of 2.3%.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.66% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.9 billion, indicating a 2% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for HRL’s first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at 38 cents per share, implying a 7.3% decrease from the year-earlier quarter. The consensus mark has been stable in the past seven days.

General Mills (GIS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.77% and a Zacks Rank #3. GIS is anticipated to register a decline in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for General Mills’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.1 billion, indicating a decline of 0.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for General Mills’ bottom line has been stable in the past seven days at $1.03 per share. The consensus estimate for GIS suggests a decline of 12% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. GIS has delivered an earnings beat of 7.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Grocery Outlet Holding (GO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a decline in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 17 cents, down 5.6% from the year-ago period.

Grocery Outlet's top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.09 billion, which suggests an increase of 9.7% from the prior-year quarter. GO has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 2.2%, on average.

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