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In this Global Week Ahead, central banks dominate the trader game. Watch with care. No matter the geography, USA policy rates lead others inside this tit-for-tat central bank matrix.
This Wednesday, the USA’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting closes up shop on 2016. Expect a 25 basis point DEC hike and a fresh 2017 prognostication to boot.
The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) -- those 3 central banks got out of the FOMC’s way ‘til after New Year’s.
However, on Thursday and Friday, at least 16 other central banks set policy rates. That’s always their plan. Let the USA move first, then react.
On top of the tit-for-tat rates strategy, traders should not forget about President-elect Donald Trump’s tactics. He is not as trader-worthy -- until he tweets early one morn and offers up his latest agenda on a company or industry.
The President-elect has been busy building his cabinet. He will keep doing that across the week ahead. Secretary of State should be announced.
On Wednesday, Mr. Trump also makes time to meet face-to-face with USA tech leaders. Tim Cook of Apple, Satya Nadella of Microsoft, Larry Page of Google, Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook, Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins, Oracle CEO Safra Katz, IBM CEO Ginni Rometty — and maybe even Jeff Bezos of Amazon — all are likely to attend Trump’s tech summit.
That tech power hour takes place at Trump Tower in NYC.
As GDP growth fundamentals, track retail sales across the globe this week. Mainland China should see retail sales grow +10.2% y/y, while U.K. spending stays robust at +7.4 annually. The USA looks similar to the U.K. Singapore shoppers should serve up a modest +2.0% nominal y/y increase.
Brazil? That country should make us cringe with a sorry -7.2% y/y retail sales decline. People don’t spend money freely when their economy is tough.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—
Las Vegas Sands (LVS - Free Report) : This is a $43 billion market cap casino.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. is a hotel, gaming and retail mall company headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company owns The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino, the Sands Expo and Convention Center, Venetian Interactive, an Internet based venture, and Venetian Macao Limited, a developer of multiple casino hotel resort properties in The People's Republic of China's Special Administrative Region of Macao.
Northrup Grumman (NOC - Free Report) : This is a $238 billion market cap defense contractor.
Northrop Grumman Corporation is a high tech company providing innovative solutions in systems integration, defense electronics and information technology for its U.S. and international military, government and commercial customers, as a prime contractor, principal subcontractor, team member or preferred supplier.
Billiton ADRs : This is a $36 billion market cap mining company based in Australia.
BHP Billiton PLC is engaged in production of minerals; which includes iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper and uranium as well as oil, gas and energy coal. BHP Billiton PLC is based in Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria.
Key Global/Macro—
The major trader moment is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The ‘dot plot’ summarizes the committee’s and Chair Yellen’s views on a Trump Presidency stimulus. This should be solid added info, and closely watched.
On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Central Bank of South Korea hand down monetary policy rate decisions.
On Friday, I noted the Russian Central Bank (CBR) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). Many other central banks act on both days.
In the week ahead -- as I wrote -- keep your eyes on y/y retail sales growth data for various countries. Differences show relative sovereign aggregate demand strength.
On Monday, the City of Buenos Aires CPI should come out at +44.7% y/y. Wow. That’s high!
India’s industrial production should be up +0.7% y/y.
The European Parliament meets this entire week.
On Tuesday, Russia’s preliminary GDP should be -0.4% y/y.
The IEA releases its latest oil market report.
Mainland China’s retail sales should be +10.2% y/y. It usually hits the mark exactly.
Brazil’s broad retail sales, in comparison, should be down -7.2% y/y.
The U.K. CPI should be +1.2% y/y. That is still low. +2% is the BoE target.
The important ZEW indices come out for Germany and the Eurozone. Eurozone economic sentiment should go to 16.9 from 15.8, while Germany should go to 15.2 from 13.8. Both are headed in the right direction.
On Wednesday, retail sales in South Africa should be up +1.4% y/y.
USA retail sales (ex-Auto) should be up +0.2% m/m.
The FOMC meeting happens. The Fed Funds rate should get to 0.75% from 0.50%.
The Fed’s Yellen speaks in NYC. The big news will be about how the Trump election plays out to the ‘dot plot’ of future rate hikes. This DEC 25 bps move is a done deal.
On Thursday, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee meets and issues its rate decision.
???Bank of Mexico (Banxico) holds a monetary policy meeting.
The central bank of South Korea announces its rate decision.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds a monetary policy assessment meeting.
Australia’s unemployment rate should be 5.6%.
Singapore’s retail sales should go up +2.0% y/y.
The composite PMI for the Eurozone should be at 53.6 after posting a prior 53.9.
UK retail sales (ex-Auto & Fuel) should be up +7.4% y/y.
On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) issues its interest rate announcement. The key rate is now 10.0%.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announces its interest rate decision. The composite interest rate is 0.25%.
USA building permits should be 1.24 million and housing starts should be 1.23 million annualized.
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Time to Play Rates Tit-for-Tat: Global Week Ahead
In this Global Week Ahead, central banks dominate the trader game. Watch with care. No matter the geography, USA policy rates lead others inside this tit-for-tat central bank matrix.
This Wednesday, the USA’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting closes up shop on 2016. Expect a 25 basis point DEC hike and a fresh 2017 prognostication to boot.
The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) -- those 3 central banks got out of the FOMC’s way ‘til after New Year’s.
However, on Thursday and Friday, at least 16 other central banks set policy rates. That’s always their plan. Let the USA move first, then react.
On top of the tit-for-tat rates strategy, traders should not forget about President-elect Donald Trump’s tactics. He is not as trader-worthy -- until he tweets early one morn and offers up his latest agenda on a company or industry.
The President-elect has been busy building his cabinet. He will keep doing that across the week ahead. Secretary of State should be announced.
On Wednesday, Mr. Trump also makes time to meet face-to-face with USA tech leaders. Tim Cook of Apple, Satya Nadella of Microsoft, Larry Page of Google, Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook, Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins, Oracle CEO Safra Katz, IBM CEO Ginni Rometty — and maybe even Jeff Bezos of Amazon — all are likely to attend Trump’s tech summit.
That tech power hour takes place at Trump Tower in NYC.
As GDP growth fundamentals, track retail sales across the globe this week. Mainland China should see retail sales grow +10.2% y/y, while U.K. spending stays robust at +7.4 annually. The USA looks similar to the U.K. Singapore shoppers should serve up a modest +2.0% nominal y/y increase.
Brazil? That country should make us cringe with a sorry -7.2% y/y retail sales decline. People don’t spend money freely when their economy is tough.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—
Las Vegas Sands (LVS - Free Report) : This is a $43 billion market cap casino.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. is a hotel, gaming and retail mall company headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company owns The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino, the Sands Expo and Convention Center, Venetian Interactive, an Internet based venture, and Venetian Macao Limited, a developer of multiple casino hotel resort properties in The People's Republic of China's Special Administrative Region of Macao.
Northrup Grumman (NOC - Free Report) : This is a $238 billion market cap defense contractor.
Northrop Grumman Corporation is a high tech company providing innovative solutions in systems integration, defense electronics and information technology for its U.S. and international military, government and commercial customers, as a prime contractor, principal subcontractor, team member or preferred supplier.
Billiton ADRs : This is a $36 billion market cap mining company based in Australia.
BHP Billiton PLC is engaged in production of minerals; which includes iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper and uranium as well as oil, gas and energy coal. BHP Billiton PLC is based in Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria.
Key Global/Macro—
The major trader moment is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The ‘dot plot’ summarizes the committee’s and Chair Yellen’s views on a Trump Presidency stimulus. This should be solid added info, and closely watched.
On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Central Bank of South Korea hand down monetary policy rate decisions.
On Friday, I noted the Russian Central Bank (CBR) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). Many other central banks act on both days.
In the week ahead -- as I wrote -- keep your eyes on y/y retail sales growth data for various countries. Differences show relative sovereign aggregate demand strength.
On Monday, the City of Buenos Aires CPI should come out at +44.7% y/y. Wow. That’s high!
India’s industrial production should be up +0.7% y/y.
The European Parliament meets this entire week.
On Tuesday, Russia’s preliminary GDP should be -0.4% y/y.
The IEA releases its latest oil market report.
Mainland China’s retail sales should be +10.2% y/y. It usually hits the mark exactly.
Brazil’s broad retail sales, in comparison, should be down -7.2% y/y.
The U.K. CPI should be +1.2% y/y. That is still low. +2% is the BoE target.
The important ZEW indices come out for Germany and the Eurozone. Eurozone economic sentiment should go to 16.9 from 15.8, while Germany should go to 15.2 from 13.8. Both are headed in the right direction.
On Wednesday, retail sales in South Africa should be up +1.4% y/y.
USA retail sales (ex-Auto) should be up +0.2% m/m.
The FOMC meeting happens. The Fed Funds rate should get to 0.75% from 0.50%.
The Fed’s Yellen speaks in NYC. The big news will be about how the Trump election plays out to the ‘dot plot’ of future rate hikes. This DEC 25 bps move is a done deal.
On Thursday, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee meets and issues its rate decision.
???Bank of Mexico (Banxico) holds a monetary policy meeting.
The central bank of South Korea announces its rate decision.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds a monetary policy assessment meeting.
Australia’s unemployment rate should be 5.6%.
Singapore’s retail sales should go up +2.0% y/y.
The composite PMI for the Eurozone should be at 53.6 after posting a prior 53.9.
UK retail sales (ex-Auto & Fuel) should be up +7.4% y/y.
On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) issues its interest rate announcement. The key rate is now 10.0%.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announces its interest rate decision. The composite interest rate is 0.25%.
USA building permits should be 1.24 million and housing starts should be 1.23 million annualized.