It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Paccar (PCAR Quick QuotePCAR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Paccar due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

PACCAR Q4 Earnings Top, Parts Unit Posts Better-Than-Expected Profits

PACCAR recorded earnings of $1.68 per share for the fourth quarter of 2024, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.66 but declined from $2.70 per share reported in the year-ago period. 

Consolidated revenues (including trucks and financial services) came in at $7.9 billion, down from $9 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Sales from Trucks, Parts and Others were $7.36 billion.

Key Takeaways

Revenues from the Trucks segment totaled $5.69 billion in the fourth quarter, lower than the prior-year quarter’s $6.97 billion. The metric, however, surpassed our estimate of $5.59 billion. Global truck deliveries came in at 43,900 units, higher than our projection of 42,082 units but lower than 51,100 units delivered in the corresponding quarter of 2023. The segment’s pre-tax income was $503 million, which fell short of our estimate of $608.4 million and plunged 98% year over year.

Revenues from the Parts segment totaled $1.67 billion in the reported quarter, up from the year-earlier period’s $1.61 billion. Our estimate was $1.68 billion. The segment’s pre-tax income came in at $428.2 million, down from $432.4 million reported in the year-ago period. The metric, however, topped our forecast of $315.5 million.

Financial Services segment revenues came in at $544.3 million, higher than the year-ago quarter’s $484.8 million but lower than our estimate of $588.3 million. Pre-tax income decreased to $104 million from $113 million reported in the year-ago period and also fell short of our projection of $119.7 million.

Other sales amounted to $2 million. Selling, general and administrative expenses in the fourth quarter of 2024 decreased to $187.4 million from $194.1 million in the prior-year period. Research & development (R&D) expenses were $115 million compared with the year-earlier quarter’s $156 million.

PACCAR’s cash and marketable debt securities amounted to $9.65 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024, compared with $8.66 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.

PACCAR paid a regular quarterly dividend of 30 cents/share along with an extra cash dividend of $3/share during the fourth quarter.

Capex and R&D expenses for 2025 are envisioned in the band of $700-$800 million and $460-$500 million, respectively.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -11.55% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Paccar has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Paccar has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.